NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[ribbybruno]

Week 17 Sunday (2-1) +.90 Units/ +$90 Overall (55-60-2) -12.10 Units/-$1210

Wild Card Saturday Recap -

Texans comeback from 16 points to win 22-19 (1-0) and Tennessee runs through New England (1-0) and Edelman Over 65 yards didn't get there (0-1) *added late

Wild Card Sunday -

New Orleans (-7.5) @ Home vs Minnesota - Kamara and Thomas big today

Seattle (Even) @ Philly - Seahawks 5-0 vs Eagles last 5

1 Unit each - $100

 

[Synopsis]

If they win or not, I don't understand people liking Seattle against nearly half the teams in the nfl. They aren't a good team. I remember getting persecuted for saying that preseason, everyone and their mothers think they are at worse a solid team. Perhaps I'm blind.

 

[Risto234]

I guess i'm going to try different approach this weekend ...

Texans vs Bills; Bills @2.25
Patriots vs Titans; Titans @2.95
Saints vs Vikings; Vikings @4.30
Eagles vs Seahawks; Eagles @2.10

Picking 4 underdogs isn't probably the greatest idea but let's see ...

2 underdogs actually won so not bad

 

[PokerSki]

I think the following NFL teams will win this weekend


San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers

 

[ribbybruno]

Wild Card Weekend and overall

ribby (3-1)(56-61-2)
Risto (2-2)(27-29-1)
ChickenArise (1-0)(27-29-3)
imhighhommie (0-0)(14-15-1)
synopsis (2-0) (141-62-1)
TDTODDY (0-4)(16-19)
CRStals (3-1)(61-62-2)
Pokerski (0-0) (67-54)
wewillrockyou (1-3) (15-7)
mrrigel (0-0) (10-9-1)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
odn(0-0)(3-0)
an9312 (0-0)(1-1)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
an9312 (0-0)(3-1)
PelyaMX (0-0)(2-2)
Yanko57 (0-0)(5-6-1)
PokerToker (0-0) (1-0)
__________________

 

[ribbybruno]

Divisional Round Notes -

Minnesota (+7) @ San Francisco - O/U 44.5

49ers - NFL Rank -offense (4) defense (2) special teams (26) turnover ratio (+4) 9-6-1 ATS - covered 4 of last 6 - Home Record 6-2 - key injured players return - Games Over Total (9) Games Under Total(6) Games Tied Total(1)

Vikings - NFL Rank - offense (16) defense (14) special teams (16) turnover ratio (+11) 10-7 ATS - Under the total 4 of last 5 games - Away Record 4-4 - Vikings healthy - Games Over Total (9) Games Under Total (8)

Tennessee (+10) @ Baltimore - O/U 47

Baltimore - NFL Rank - offense (2) defense (4) special teams (29) turnover ratio (+10) 10-6 ATS - covered 9 of last 10 games - Home Record 7-1 - Ingram will play - Games Over Total (8) Games Under Total (8)

Tennessee - NFL Rank -offense (12) defense (20) special teams (23) turnover ratio (+6) 9-7-1 ATS - covered 6 of last 8 games - Away Record 5-3 - LB Brown out - Games Over Total (10) Games Under Total (6)

Sunday -

Houston (+10) @ Kansas City - O/U 51

Kansas City - NFL Rank -offense (6) defense (16) special teams (5) turnover ratio (+8) 10-5-1 ATS - covered last 6 games - Home Record 5-3 - Injuries okay - Games Over Total (8) Games Under Total (8)

Houston - NFL Rank - offense (13) defense (27) special teams (18) turnover ratio (0) 8-8-1 ATS - covered only once in last 5 games - Away Record 5-3 - Watt returned last week - Fuller still questionable - Games Over Total (7) Games Under Total (9)

Seattle (+5) @ Green Bay - O/U 47

Green Bay - NFL Rank -offense (18) defense (17) special teams (24) turnover ratio (+12) 10-6 ATS - covered only 3 out of 6 - Home Record 7-1 - Some defense on questionable list - Games Over Total (4) Games Under Total (10) Games Tied Total (2)

Seattle - NFL Rank - offense (8) defense (25) special teams (28) turnover ratio (+12) 8-8-1 ATS - covered only once in last 5 games - Away Record 7-1 - some defense questionable - Games Over Total (8) Games Under Total (7) Games Tie Total (1)

 

[ribbybruno]

Wild Card Weekend (1-1) -.10 Units/ -$10 Overall (56-61-2) -12.20 Units/-$1220

Recap - Viking knock out Saints in OT (0-1) and Seahawks stop Philly again 17-9 (1-0)

Divisonal Round Saturday -

SF 49ers (-7) @ Home vs Minnesota - Like match up 49ers Defense vs Minnesota Offense - Cousins going to run for his life

Baltimore (-10) @ Home vs Tennessee - Can Titans repeat performance of last week? I don't think so in my opinion. Lamar Jackson has a huge day and Andrews as well.

1 Unit each - $100

 

[CRStals]

The beat weekend of the year is here!!! Let's go!

San Fran -7 v Minnesota
Tennessee +9.5 v Baltimore
Houston +9.5 v Kansas City
Seattle +4.5 v Green Bay

Good luck everyone and enjoy 12 hours of glory!

 

[Synopsis]

I like the idea of a moneyline parlay on the favorites here. Pays a little more than 2 to 1, so you have room to buy out of any game and leave meat on it for profit either way if you do it right.

San Fran over looks good. Titans are being given a lot of points considering how they are playing. That money line is well over 300. I think they have the best chance for an upset, followed by the vikings, and seattle. Worth a dip but one really intriguing line is titans team total for the first half, it's only 8.5 and juiced on the under.

 

[Synopsis]

Henry over 93.5 rushing yards
Fan bet here, Henry is a Alabama guy. It's a lot of yards for a over under against a good defence, but besides it being a fan bet, he has been lights out and they will need that tough running to be competitive here.

 

[Synopsis]

San Fran -2.5 second half
If not for that late pick, they would be up 7, in a game they are dominating on the defensive side. They get the ball first second half and if they score there, I expect them to grind that clock which will put more pressure on the vikings due to limited possessions. Pressure tends to produce turnovers.

 

[Synopsis]

Get in on the replay to be upheld. Free money

 

[Synopsis]

Titans second half total is only 6.5, wow. I have to take that. Ravens is 16.5, yet the spread is 8, but heavily, heavily juiced to the ravens... but it's not moving, that's suspect.

Edit... it's 7 now, and I'm going to take it at 7 also.

 

[Synopsis]

Hell yeah, Henry with a long run, over that 93.5 yards easily on the first possession of the 3rd. He has 134.

Edit.. hell yeah again a few plays later. Already hit the Seco do half over for the titans, and pushing the other one.

 

[Synopsis]

9-1

San Fran total, and second half, titans +10, titans moneyline +389, titans first half total, second half total (6.5), the other Second half total(7), the upheld challenge, and Henry over 93.5 rushing yards all won. The only loss was the moneyline parlay for the 4 teams this week. I'm more than happy with that loss, because I won the titans money line which paid almost twice what the parlay would have.

 

[jpnove]

GO GO GO PACKERS!!!

Let's win today! Rodgers is the best.

 

[ribbybruno]

Division Round Saturday (1-1) -.10 Units/ -$10 Overall (57-62-2) -12.30 Units/-$1230

Recap - 49ers shut down Vikings (1-0) and Titans stun Ravens (0-1)

Divisonal Round Sunday -

KC (-10) @ Home vs Houston - Texans ranked close to last in defense - to me a fresh Mahomes could be a huge factor

Green Bay (-4) @ Home vs Seattle - Rodgers thrives on a cold crisp day - in playoffs home team has won in this series

1 Unit each - $100

 

[Synopsis]

If the Texans just let the control go, meaning let Watson play more free much like the Chiefs let mahomes play, they would win this game tonight. Texans with a good aggressive oc would be a top 5 team in the league, especially if they stayed healthy on the other side. Not sure if I want to throw some money on them or not though, because I'm quite sure they won't unleash him here, perhaps ever. I'll give it a go.

I'll probably bet green bay after I look through some stuff. I'm going to look at the props on Rodgers first though because Seattle has a terrible pass defense.

Edit.. these props seem pretty strange don't they? In the green bay game.

Edit 2... OK I am going to try Rodgers over 251.5 Metcalf over 3.5 receptions, green bay over 2.5 tds. A lot of value on these 3 I feel. A lot of the props today seem too high given the weather.

 

[Synopsis]

Ok, looking at the actual game instead of props. Can someone tell me why this line has been steady 4 to 4.5 even with Seattle missing half their offensive line? Am I missing something?

 

[Synopsis]

Line is -4 but juiced on seattle. I could try to wait it out and hope it drops, but at the moment I can buy down to 3 @-128. That's not bad considering getting to a key number. Something seems off here, I'm just not sure which side seems off. I feel like green bay are going to be all over Russell with that depleted line. The line staying within a half this whole time just strikes me strange. I'll take green bay -3 @-128 for now.

 

[Synopsis]

Texans choking... at a glance you'd think they are letting Watson do his thing, but he has 1 60 yard pass, so besides that he has 9 completions, averaging about 5 yards a pass... not very good. And kc just scored again. They have to let Watson play his game and quit with these safe short passes, it's ridiculous. If they don't score on this drive I may hedge some out.

 

[nellorossi83]

I m so happy, cause in Brazil everybody says nfl is Tom Brady and another players... and now we hava a nfl without him

 

[Synopsis]

Betting that review to be upheld to make this a free bet ultimately.
Glad I didn't hedge out, but kc scored 14 more since. It's unreal to me how teams do this. You're up 24 to nothing, and you play like a bitch, knowing the other team can play balls out, and it's a team that's already pretty balls out offensively to begin with. They have Watson doing safe passes at the line, over and over. It's whatever, it should be a free roll after this replay.

 

[Synopsis]

I kind of want to bet the Texans +7.5 second half. Not sure why anyone would want to do that. Kc get the ball first second half.

 

[Synopsis]

Play review upheld is -142, and it's pretty obvious it will be upheld