TheKid's Parlay Megathread v2.0

[c9h13no3]

Jesus you are such a sucker. That tease is burning money.

 

[TheKid84]

Jesus you are such a sucker. That tease is burning money.

Lol thanks for the label....

It would benefit everyone who has posted here, including this sucker, for you to elaborate and educate rather than just result to name calling.

 

[S3mper]

He called you Jesus doesn't sound like a bad label to me =P

 

[TheKid84]

He called you Jesus doesn't sound like a bad label to me =P

Touche I could get used to that...

Good news is the Saints have woken up from hibernation this week. Still a close game, but momentum has swung big time. Good thing CLE doesn't know how to play 4 quarters.

DAL is looking ok, they just scored another 7. The +13.5 in addition to their lead makes me feel comfortable.

 

[TheKid84]

Well the Saints defensive lapse on the final drive screws my two smaller bets, but my two big ones are still in play after the 1:00 games. Saints gave that game up hands down. Pretty sad of a performance if you ask me.

Some big games from Seattle, Denver, and Green Bay would really make my day.

 

[S3mper]

Yeah and the Jags didn't pull off the upset I was hoping they would either..

My fault for thinking Jags could do anything but lose

 

[TheKid84]

My games are all trying to start in a defect for some reason. Seattle and Green Bay act as if they haven't won a superbowl in the past couple of years. Wake up people, these aren't even playoff teams...

 

[S3mper]

I tried to warn ya

Still lots of game left though

 

[TheKid84]

I tried to warn ya

Still lots of game left though

I knew SD would put up a fight, but didn't think they would win vs a very strong well rounded SEA team.

Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, would have said NYJ would produce 7 on their first 3 drives, included 2 80+ yard drives. This is the biggest lead they've had since 2009. They must have known I had money riding on this game... ugh.

 

[S3mper]

lol I didn't know how the Jets would win but I have em winning =p

Refs are trying to help SD out especially with the TD where he stepped out

 

[TheKid84]

Seattle has 89 yards, 3:04, and 2 Times Outs left... C'mon baby, score me a TD.

Hopefully they can get Percy Harvin some touches here. He is a game changer, and only 2 touches for the game isn't going to do much.

Edit: oooooooooor maybe they should start off by losing 2 yards and letting a minute go off the clock in just 2 plays. What on earth is going on?

Edit x2: Possibly the worst play calling for a final drive I've seen. Pathetic Seattle...

 

[c9h13no3]

Lol thanks for the label....

It would benefit everyone who has posted here, including this sucker, for you to elaborate and educate rather than just result to name calling.

I've tried to tell you before, but you just don't listen. Maybe you need to hear the long explanation from someone else (although you'll probably consider it too long winded). But this is sports betting 101 kid.

 

[S3mper]

Jets are screwin me over now...

14-3 I think?

31-24? pfft..

You should make a thread to connect with this one for gameday rants and keep this one for picks and pick conversations.

 

[TheKid84]

Lets address this a little bit.

I've tried to tell you before,

All you've really told me is that in my future I will lose a lot of money, for I show 'signs' of a losing better and my EV is 'typically' higher if I were to bet individual games. This is the first I've read of this, thanks for putting it out there. I did read it all, although I only dissected the first point and decided that was enough for me. You state that "when in doubt, take the points, for underdogs cover 51.5% of the time." Referencing one of the general sites with good info you also listed in that post, the Wizard of Odds site, it states that all underdogs against the spread win 50.05% of the time. My first thought was maybe they're using different time period or whatever to make their point. Either way, numbers are conflicting, and I tend to stay away from conflicting info. But I'm splitting hairs, we can all just safely assume they're 50/50 splits, because Vegas does their best to make them that way, right?

but you just don't listen.

I did listen. I responded, in fact the direct next post had it, I even quoted you for reference in that post. If you may have missed it, here it is.

I always hear that phrase "Teasers and parlays are sucker bets" and I have come to some conclusions, I just don't know what the answer is.

1 - I'm maybe a sucker? With the regular season approaching, I feel teasing 7-10 points on a spread or over/under allows me to confidently pick a correct outcome. Yes, it's been a bit shaky so far, but I've been betting on preseason. I'll be the first to tell anyone betting on the preseason is silly, but I've got the itch and wont danger my BR before the season begins. Last year I stuck with these bets doing 3 leg sweetheart teasers and would wager a hundred or two on the games. I did fairly well. I'd like to replicate last year and if I do, I will be pretty excited on that.

2 - The suckers are those who say that phrase? Again - I don't know which one is the answer. Maybe they both are? What I do know is a decent amount of the NFL game and allowing that TD or more swing really makes me comfortable in those bets. Obviously there is never anything of a 'lock' in the sports betting world, but I do like my chances

To further my philosophy, I follow the NFL pretty closely (although I have drifted a bit this last year with the birth of my first child). What confuses me, and I hope this is the only thing if anything that gets addressed from this post, is that if these lines as is are set up by the masterminds of all that is holy to make them as 50/50 as possible, why wouldn't anyone want to get an extra 10/13 points in their favor??? Do sports betters not follow football throughout the year and just bet on trends based on years of research??? I mean no matter how much data is thrown my way, when the MIN line swung to MIN+7 or +8 without AP (whatever the line was), no way in hell was I putting a dime on that against a NE team facing 0-2, and I'm glad I didn't. By the way, this was a line everyone was very big on, for whatever reason I still don't know. They didn't have a chance!

You mentioned that I don't listen to you, when in fact I've issued every one of your concerns or questions prior to this. In fact, with your post #100 in this thread earlier today, you either didn't read as to why I do teaser bets, or you just don't believe in my philosophy enough to support it.

I did this all last year, it was a blast. I even went through the 14 pages of a thread to present you with my wins/losses and amounts on 10/13 point "sucker bets" and how I fared (let me know if you'd like to view it, I could always dig it up for you). Did I defy all worldly odds?? Was I a freak of nature?? From the 'general' percentages shown in your literature, I must have been one of the knowingest football people last year. One thing is for sure, I will never willy nilly put my money on a line because a home favorite generally wins X% of the time.

I do thank you for sharing the information, Epinephrin. There is a lot there that I will probably dive in a bit more later on in the week when I have more time. Just do us all a favor, keep it to constructive criticism in hopes to help rather than just pointing, laughing, and name calling. Because posts like this:

Jesus you are such a sucker. That tease is burning money.

does absolutely nothing for nobody here.

 

[TheKid84]

Here is everything I've got on the line today. Not too much, but hopefully making money instead of losing money.

Week 2
Carbon: -$79
Bovada: -$51.27
Overall: -130.27

Bovada:
3 Team Teaser
New Orleans Saints +3 Sep 14/14@01:00p
Competitor: Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks +4 Sep 14/14@04:05p
Competitor: San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos -3 Sep 14/14@04:25p
Competitor: Kansas City Chiefs
Risk US$ 100.00
To Win US$ 90.91

Dallas Cowboys +3.5
NO Saints -310
NE Pats -210
GB Packers -400
Risk US$2.00
To Win US$6.95


Carbon:
Bet $ 75.00 to win $ 62.50
Result: Pending
Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans 09/14/14 13:00 EDT
Dallas Cowboys +13.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos 09/14/14 16:25 EDT
Denver Broncos -3
New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers 09/14/14 16:25 EDT
Green Bay Packers +1.5

Bet $5.00 to win $13.89
Denver Broncos -800
NE Pats -225
NO Saints -280
GB Packers -400
Seattle Seahawks -270

Clearly not the way I wanted things to start. There are some pretty shocking outcomes that have hurt me. I will look pretty closely in hopes to win some next week.

Week 2
Carbon: -$21.5
Bovada: -$153.27
Overall: -174.77

 

[c9h13no3]

What confuses me, and I hope this is the only thing if anything that gets addressed from this post, is that if these lines as is are set up by the masterminds of all that is holy to make them as 50/50 as possible, why wouldn't anyone want to get an extra 10/13 points in their favor???

Because the price you pay for those additional points isn't worth it.

So the odds you laid on that teaser are 100:90.91. So in order for that bet to pay off, you'd have to win that bet 52.38% of the time. You take the cube root of 0.5238 to find the odds that you need to win each individual game, which is 0.806 for the math impaired.

So the question is this: if you get 10 points, does the spread go from a 50/50 proposition to an 80.6/19.4 proposition. (Spoiler alert: it doesn't) Below, I've included a screenshot from Wizard of odds showing the new odds of winning a game when you add points in your favor to the spread. As you can see, on average, when you get 10 points, your chance of winning against the spread then becomes 78.23%!

BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! This assumes that crossing all numbers are created equal. In football, they're not. Crossing the 3 and 7 is super important, since many games end in those margins of victory. Crossing the zero doesn't ever matter since games rarely end in ties, and one of the Cardinal sins of teasing is that you are burning money if you cross the zero. YOU DID THAT TWICE!

So yeah, here's the deal. You are terrible at sports betting. You are the guy the casinos hope walk in the door, because you make them money. And furthermore, you are lucky, because I am spelling out for you why you're bad. Most people will not give you the 20 minutes to explain out why you're losing money, but for some reason tonight I'm feeling charitable. Please, for your child's sake, everytime you go to bet on sports in the future, stop. Do nothing. Put that money in a 529 plan. Because you are lighting dollar bills on fire by proceeding to bet sports in the manner you're betting them.

 

[OzExorcist]

Sorry, but stupid terminology question: "crossing the zero" is adding points to go from, say, -3 to +3, right?

 

[c9h13no3]

Sorry, but stupid terminology question: "crossing the zero" is adding points to go from, say, -3 to +3, right?

Yep. The only reason to ever do a teaser is if you're doing a "Wong Teaser", or using a 6 point tease to cross the 3 and the 7 (only teasing spreads of +2 or -8).

 

[TheKid84]

Because the price you pay for those additional points isn't worth it.

So the odds you laid on that teaser are 100:90.91. So in order for that bet to pay off, you'd have to win that bet 52.38% of the time. You take the cube root of 0.5238 to find the odds that you need to win each individual game, which is 0.806 for the math impaired.

So the question is this: if you get 10 points, does the spread go from a 50/50 proposition to an 80.6/19.4 proposition. (Spoiler alert: it doesn't) Below, I've included a screenshot from Wizard of odds showing the new odds of winning a game when you add points in your favor to the spread. As you can see, on average, when you get 10 points, your chance of winning against the spread then becomes 78.23%!

So I would have to win my bets 52.38% of the time. As I have informed you, last year I won them 68% of the time. Obviously this is a new year, and so far things have gone a bit different. But it is not like I've been a constant loser and continued with my horrible actions from last year. You've set the bar on what I should make, I've done it before, and it's very possible for me to do it again. It's not like I reported losing hundreds last year and hope things will be different this time.

By teasing 10, I bump it up to 78%. That's pretty sweet. Probability tells us that any 3 events to occur in our favor is 47.5%. I remember seeing some table in one of your references that spells out the % of wins of 4 categories on the spread, Home Underdog, Home Fav, Visiting Underdog, Visiting Fav. They ranged from as high as 52% and as low as 48%. so any given 10 point teaser has a probability of hitting at most 4% less than a single point spread bet. All of this for 2 things: 4% difference and the value of the dollar isn't as much when betting 10 point teasers (by very little).

BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE!

What is this, a late night commercial selling sham-wows?

This assumes that crossing all numbers are created equal. In football, they're not. Crossing the 3 and 7 is super important, since many games end in those margins of victory. Crossing the zero doesn't ever matter since games rarely end in ties, and one of the Cardinal sins of teasing is that you are burning money if you cross the zero. YOU DID THAT TWICE!

Lets evaluate the bets I placed, strictly from a football perspective.
Week 1: changing the Pats from -5 to +8. You have to go back to 2003 when the last time the Pats lost an opening season game, home or away. The Brady/Bellicheck era has always shown then can prepare when given time, also is why they typically win after their bye. I had them winning easy, so any +points seemed like a gimme. Who would have known they would only rack up 60 yards in the 2nd half total and completely melt down. But yea, that's football, and I would do that bet again.
Week1: changing the Saints from -3 to +7. Saints are like the Pats in the prep sense, and they are very deep in offense. Adding points in their favor is fine by me. I had them as a win straight up.
Week2: Saints (again), a strong team, facing 0-2, going against a poor offensive unit of the Browns. I put the Saints in the + because I figured they would win.
Week2: Seattle, yes, people in this thread had the upset picked, kudos to you guys honestly. I clearly thought different. They showed such a great opening act against a very good contender in GB, I didn't think a flakey SD team would keep the ball from SEA's offense for 42 of the 60 game minutes. NOBODY did. To top it off, their D is sleep napping from that game.
I would do all these bets again if possible. And if played again, I'm almost certain the outcomes would be in my favor.

So yeah, here's the deal. You are terrible at sports betting. You are the guy the casinos hope walk in the door, because you make them money. And furthermore, you are lucky, because I am spelling out for you why you're bad. Most people will not give you the 20 minutes to explain out why you're losing money, but for some reason tonight I'm feeling charitable. Please, for your child's sake, everytime you go to bet on sports in the future, stop. Do nothing. Put that money in a 529 plan. Because you are lighting dollar bills on fire by proceeding to bet sports in the manner you're betting them.

Even with this years losses, I'm still on profit. That doesn't make me TERRIBLE at sports betting. I said it from the first time you asked me on my theories, I bet on how I see things playing out, and tease points in my favor to do so. You try and preach your sports betting religion on to me, while I've tried to preach your greater that God condescending and insulting posts are not encouraged or welcome here. You made mention of changing the thread of this post or possibly getting an NFL betting thread started. Please, do me a favor and go start a thread. Telling me what is best for my child and the insults just show your true color.

Next time you're feeling 'charitable', spend some more quality time in a soup kitchen and less time throwing insults behind a message board.

I will gladly talk strategy with anyone who visits this thread. The posts with any condescending tone or insults will just be ignored. Week 3 thoughts will be out in the next couple of days. Not really feellin the Thursday night game lines, so no action there for me.

 

[TheKid84]

This week, the matchups are tough. There are a lot of oddly matched teams either home/away where the spreads aren't looking the greatest. A lot of games this week can go either way. I have found two games I would like to tease 10 points in favor, but still searching for a third....

Min @ NO (NO -0.5): The Saint can't, wont, would never, drop a 3rd straight game to start the season to an AP-less Vikes. I feel them winning straight up is the only lock this week. Getting the line to -.5 is something I like.

Wash @ Philly (Over 40.5): We know the Eagles can score, that is a given. What they also do is allow points. Even though RG3 is done for the year, I'm one to believe that Cousins is a better fit in that offense for success. Besides, both defenses are just bad. 3 TD's for both sides is easily obtainable. Weather forecast looks good (80, no rain), points should be had by all.

Other lines I'm eyeing for the 3rd leg:
Giving points to Dallas @ StL - Dallas is running real well, one of the top running games in the league. Romo is still Romo, but a great running game takes a lot of pressure off of him, that's always a good thing.
Giving points to the Pats hosting Oak - They rebounded in week 2, and host another bad team in week 3. West coast teams typically have a difficult time winning on the east coast to begin with. Adjusting the line to a NE-4 seems must more comforting.
Giving points to the Over for Indy @ Jax - The line would be Over 35.5, and both teams have been in decent/higher scoring games this season. Weather looking good, 5 TD's is very doable for those offenses against those defenses.
Giving points to the Over for Den @ Sea - I don't think I'll end up doing this one, but for some reason, I just feel like this is going to be a high scoring event. The adjustment would be Over 39 points scored. Just a gut feeling.

I'll think these over in the near future, we shall see how I feel by the end of the day/beginning of tomorrow.

 

[TheKid84]

Week 3 is here, and this is the time I can move from negative to a profit. Hopefully my bigger bets pay out and we can celebrate! C'mon footballs, lets win some monies!!!

Carbon:
Bet $ 2.00 to win $ 10.79
Dallas Cowboys vs St. Louis Rams 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
Dallas Cowboys -125
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins 09/21/14 16:25 EDT
Miami Dolphins -185
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
New Orleans Saints -600
Oakland Raiders vs New England Patriots 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
New England Patriots -1300
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
Cincinnati Bengals -330
Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
Philadelphia Eagles -245


10 Point Teaser (3 Teams)
Bet $ 75.00 to win $ 62.50
Dallas Cowboys vs St. Louis Rams 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
Dallas Cowboys +8.5 (-115)
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
New Orleans Saints -0.5 (-115)
Oakland Raiders vs New England Patriots 09/21/14 13:00 EDT
New England Patriots -4 (-110)


Bovada:
13 Point Teaser
(453) Dallas Cowboys vs. (454) St. Louis Rams
Over 31 Sep 21/14@01:00p
(457) Houston Texans vs. (458) New York Giants
Under 54½ Sep 21/14@01:00p
(463) Baltimore Ravens vs. (464) Cleveland Browns
Over 29 Sep 21/14@01:00p
(469) Oakland Raiders +27½ Sep 21/14@01:00p
Competitor: (470) New England Patriots

Bet US$ 20.00
Win US$ 16.67

10 Point Teaser
New Orleans Saints -1 Sep 21/14@01:00p
Competitor: Minnesota Vikings
Dallas Cowboys +7 Sep 21/14@01:00p
Competitor: St. Louis Rams
Green Bay Packers +11 Sep 21/14@01:00p
Competitor: Detroit Lions

Bet US$ 100.00
Win US$ 90.91

Green Bay Packers +1 (EVEN) Sep 21/14@01:00p
Competitor: Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks -5½ Sep 21/14@04:25p
Competitor: Denver Broncos
Carolina Panthers -3 (-125) Sep 21/14@08:30p
Competitor: Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans -1 Sep 21/14@01:00p
Competitor: New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-125) Sep 21/14@04:05p
Competitor: Arizona Cardinals

Bet US$ 1.00
Win US$ 22.62

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Crazy fun bet. $2 win $56 both steelers and panthers defenses score touchdowns.

 

[TheKid84]

Crazy fun bet. $2 win $56 both steelers and panthers defenses score touchdowns.

Crazy and fun indeed, I like it!

Hope you score on that one man!

Colin Cowherd has a football show that focuses on some sports betting. They discuss and will point out who the Sharps are on for some specific games. I wrote some of the picks they made, lets see how they would do this week. These are the lines they like:
Den +5.5
Pit +3
Buf -2
Dal -1
NYG -1.5
Cle +2.5
Oak +14
Min +10

 

[S3mper]

I would like it and would like to do it myself if it wouldn't require me at some point in the game hoping the Panthers get a pick six against my Steelers

 

[OzExorcist]

Colin Cowherd has a football show that focuses on some sports betting. They discuss and will point out who the Sharps are on for some specific games. I wrote some of the picks they made, lets see how they would do this week. These are the lines they like:
Den +5.5
Pit +3
Buf -2
Dal -1
NYG -1.5
Cle +2.5
Oak +14
Min +10

5-3 ATS.

Very close in the Denver and Minnesota games too, though if you want to look at it like that the Cleveland bet only won by half a point too