$109 NL HE MTT: 109$ K8S

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Geo90

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888Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (12 ante) - 8 players
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UTG: 679 (7 bb)
UTG+1: 15,437 (154 bb)
MP (Hero): 18,996 (190 bb)
MP+1: 20,703 (207 bb)
CO: 12,798 (128 bb)
BU: 29,328 (293 bb)
SB: 16,962 (170 bb)
BB: 15,196 (152 bb)

Pre-Flop:
(246) Hero is MP with K 8
2 players fold, Hero raises to 250, 1 fold, CO calls 250, 2 players fold, BB calls 150

Flop: (896) 4 7 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 495, CO calls 495, BB calls 495

Turn: (2,381) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,471, CO calls 1,471, BB raises to 5,884, MP (Hero) folds, CO calls 4,413

River: (15,620) A (2 players)
BB checks, CO checks


Happy New Year, everyone!



I haven't posted in a long time, even though I always realize that the best way to learn is to listen to your analyses and opinions about my game.



The bounty wasn't active yet!



Preflop Raise is fine, I think.



Flop Raise could have been smaller, pot 30-40%.



Turn I got 3 more outs on the flop before they could call, they might have a lot of BB 87+ a lot of 7s in their range, straight draw, flush draw or Full House 44 66 even 77 Half pot call is fine, I think

I should have bet 4413 into 11207, 40% if I call, I would still have plenty of chips left here. Is the bet too tight? But if I call and CO goes all-in, then I have to call.
 
eetenor

eetenor

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A good habit to get into is not building the pot drawing to the non-nuts-- Count how many possible full houses there are on the turn and then count how many Axdd combos there are and then realize a boat, a straight, a set all will XR you and you will have no idea if you will be good on the river if you flush after calling the XR. This uncertainty makes us fold. However, we do not want to fold our potential winning hand we want to get to the river and make our decision then.

:unsure::geek:

I realized after posting this it might sound like me advocating for a call on turn. NO
what we want is to never be check raised and the only way we can 100% be sure is to not bet.
 
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Geo90

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A good habit to get into is not building the pot drawing to the non-nuts-- Count how many possible full houses there are on the turn and then count how many Axdd combos there are and then realize a boat, a straight, a set all will XR you and you will have no idea if you will be good on the river if you flush after calling the XR. This uncertainty makes us fold. However, we do not want to fold our potential winning hand we want to get to the river and make our decision then.

:unsure::geek:

I realized after posting this it might sound like me advocating for a call on turn. NO
what we want is to never be check raised and the only way we can 100% be sure is to not bet.
Thank you, since there are many possibilities for a full house with BB, it could be anything from 77 76 74S 66 44,

A2s-AJs, anything is possible with him, A8 A3 A5, he even has a straight draw.


Flush draw 10 combinations

Full house 14 combinations

Looking at it this way, I'm really in a bad spot, and it's clear that the call was a mistake. Thank you for the analysis!
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
This is a bit of a wide open, but its not terrible.

Flop
I think, the C-bet is fine, but you could also go for a check-call line instead.

Turn
You picked up a gutshot to go with your flushdraw, but even so I dont think, I am betting again, when both players called on the flop. Its kind of unlikely, that they both fold now on this card, and it also sucks to get raised, which is unfortunately, what happened. As played you are getting sort of decent odds to continue with a 12 out draw. But you are only drawing to the second best flush or straight, and the board is paired. So after a turn raise you have more reverse implied odds than implied odds on the river, and for that reason I like your decision to fold.
 
puzzlefish

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Not drawing to second best nuts is sound advice. I do find though that at higher levels players will see this and try to bluff you off on scary turns. Hard to tell if they have it or not until they check the river.
 
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Geo90

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Preflop
This is a bit of a wide open, but its not terrible.

Flop
I think, the C-bet is fine, but you could also go for a check-call line instead.

Turn
You picked up a gutshot to go with your flushdraw, but even so I dont think, I am betting again, when both players called on the flop. Its kind of unlikely, that they both fold now on this card, and it also sucks to get raised, which is unfortunately, what happened. As played you are getting sort of decent odds to continue with a 12 out draw. But you are only drawing to the second best flush or straight, and the board is paired. So after a turn raise you have more reverse implied odds than implied odds on the river, and for that reason I like your decision to fold.

In hindsight, raising the turn was a mistake. I unnecessarily increased the pot, and my draws were weak on such a board. A check-call would have been better.
 
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Geo90

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Not drawing to second best nuts is sound advice. I do find though that at higher levels players will see this and try to bluff you off on scary turns. Hard to tell if they have it or not until they check the river.
Thank you, I overestimated my card; a check would have been a better play in any case.
 
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** Summary **
VeiDoRiO shows [ 5d, 3d ]
Polomatyj shows [ 8s, 7s ]
First runout VeiDoRiO collected [ 15,620 ]

In the end, I would have won :/
 
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fundiver199

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So you would have won, which is not surpricing, when the river went check-check. But even so its not like, you were getting bluffed. They both had strong hands on the turn, and against their specific holdings you only had 10 outs. One of your straight outs was accounted for, and 6d would have made one of the opponents a full house.

The fact, they both checked the river, also show, that even when you do make the best hand, your implied odds are not all that great. No hand worse than the low straight bet flop, bet-call turn and then bet again on the river, when the flushdraw has come in. So its entirely possible, they would both have folded, what was now essentially bluff catchers, to a significant river bet.
 
eetenor

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So you would have won, which is not surpricing, when the river went check-check. But even so its not like, you were getting bluffed. They both had strong hands on the turn, and against their specific holdings you only had 10 outs. One of your straight outs was accounted for, and 6d would have made one of the opponents a full house.

The fact, they both checked the river, also show, that even when you do make the best hand, your implied odds are not all that great. No hand worse than the low straight bet flop, bet-call turn and then bet again on the river, when the flushdraw has come in. So its entirely possible, they would both have folded, what was now essentially bluff catchers, to a significant river bet.
This is a part of poker that is often overlooked--if we hit will we get paid? If we take all that risk on the turn, does it payoff for us?
This idea of getting paid also applies to river decisions. When we bet, will we get paid or will we only be called by better and all else folds.

When we start off in no-foldem games we can sometimes carry over that idea of always getting paid by worse when we play vs players who can fold we want to adjust our thinking as we move up. Not everyone is a loose fish.

Great point @fundiver thanks for sharing

:unsure::geek:
 
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Geo90

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So you would have won, which is not surpricing, when the river went check-check. But even so its not like, you were getting bluffed. They both had strong hands on the turn, and against their specific holdings you only had 10 outs. One of your straight outs was accounted for, and 6d would have made one of the opponents a full house.

The fact, they both checked the river, also show, that even when you do make the best hand, your implied odds are not all that great. No hand worse than the low straight bet flop, bet-call turn and then bet again on the river, when the flushdraw has come in. So its entirely possible, they would both have folded, what was now essentially bluff catchers, to a significant river bet.
Yes, they could have just made a smaller call on the river, but there are strong players at this stake who know how to foold.


On the other hand, with 87 on the flop, I would have definitely 3-bet, as it was a pretty wet board.
 
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