With 15bb away from the bubble? What to do?

[Simplefortuna]

Many times I suffer from losing my stack too much, and even if I'm late registering far from a bubble, I'll usually have received a Bad Beat or pay a lot for a project, then I find myself at a crossroads of going all in or fold to recover and be able to continue in the tournament, anxiety overwhelms, who else happens to

 

[schtiuky]

This usually happens for everyone around the bubble, low stacks and emotions make it hard to play all in.

 

[bowserdon]

I feel guilty passing up good starting hands because of bubble.

 

[dannystanks]

If I have 15BB and it’s the stone cold bubble, I’m folding everything but AA KK and AK. Especially if it’s been a long tournament and making this cash is meaningful to me. If it’s a home game then I won’t play that tight because the money isn’t meaningful and it’s more about having fun.

 

[mariale_1990]

It's always difficult when you have a small stack. If you had a very good stack, we wouldn't be here trying to answer this question. But I can tell you that patience is key. It's true that if you're in a play and you lose with a bad beat, there's nothing you can do about it. However, you can be more selective with the cards you play. Avoid, as much as possible, those who have a bigger stack than you. I think many of us suffer at this stage of the tournament. We have to deal with how and with what to bet, how to win chips. I also think we don't really like the idea of playing so cautiously, folding cards we want to play with.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Many times I suffer from losing my stack too much, and even if I'm late registering far from a bubble, I'll usually have received a Bad Beat or pay a lot for a project, then I find myself at a crossroads of going all in or fold to recover and be able to continue in the tournament, anxiety overwhelms, who else happens to

When you are more familiar with what to do with varying sized chip stacks in a tournament (or near Bubble, etc.) you won't experience the same level of anxiety because > 'you know you'll be doing the right thing... picking the right spot(s)... shoving from the right spot... re-shoving in the right spots, etc. etc.'

If we know we're making the right move, we can let go of the results.

 

[Poker Orifice]

If I have 15BB and it’s the stone cold bubble, I’m folding everything but AA KK and AK. Especially if it’s been a long tournament and making this cash is meaningful to me. If it’s a home game then I won’t play that tight because the money isn’t meaningful and it’s more about having fun.

Really? I'm looking for the guy who is playing it this ^ way and I'm opening MUCH wider vs. them. Most (many) players don't want to call on the bubble so knowing this we can take advantage.

 

[kaynbergo]

This situation depends on the importance of the tournament I'm participating in. If it's a 10-cent freeroll, the money won't change my game, but I can start playing even more aggressively, taking opportunities and stealing the blinds. If a tournament is important to me and I need to get into the prize zone, I might even drop AA.

 

[Kasztor007]

I know that feeling near the bubble — the pressure becomes real. I'm just trying to focus on making the right decision, not the outcome, and reminding myself that variance is part of poker. Staying calm is the real ability.

 

[Lux12]

15bb = Short-to-Mid Stack: You’re in the danger zone — not desperate, but you can’t afford to coast.If you're one of the shorter stacks, you need to be cautious — but not passive. Don’t blind out waiting for a miracle.

 

[eetenor]

Many times I suffer from losing my stack too much, and even if I'm late registering far from a bubble, I'll usually have received a Bad Beat or pay a lot for a project, then I find myself at a crossroads of going all in or fold to recover and be able to continue in the tournament, anxiety overwhelms, who else happens to

The error you seem to be making is that you do not still have a good stack. You can often easily get thru the bubble when you have 15bb. Often when you are in this very spot for the reasons you suggested our goal is still to win the MTT but now we should know that cashing is more profitable than risking chips to win at this stage. we do not fold our big hands nor do we miss ICM pressure shove spots but we do not play a wide range like A8off we tighten to AT etc etc

 

[darkness88]

Don't play for the min cash! Play you're way the whole way through!

 

[dompoker]

I prefer to play carefully in the prize bubble, because it's always important to recover some of the money invested.

 

[Ruinkind]

People have half ideas lacking context.

Everyone has to gamble, even your 93%er is gonna get binged by a 2 outer, happens often to me and ya, it sucks.

Absolutely value the bubble, but do not pass up on premiums or nice pairs, especially if you get a chance to zone in 1-2 players with a shove decision, a AK might even consider folding preflop.

Very effective with a tight table image, the ol' bet pre-flop/all-in flop. Throw in a 3 bet, follow up with the rest if you are sub 12-15, especially if you have players zoned and you aren't trying to get lucky against the entire table, a bluff will get through here a lot with a good image.

Your ITM stat is to be valued, not respecting the bubble is a mistake. For sure, you want to run good and have a nice stack to play poker with, but that is not a super common occurrence.

 

[fundiver199]

What is the anxiety about? A short stack is very easy to play, since you can mostly reduce your decisions to folding or pushing preflop. And if the bubble is approaching maybe run down the clock deliberately (stalling) to reduce the amount of hands played at your table.

 

[KeyPatience]

Just sticking to the strategy which brought you till here makes sense! Experimenting too much might also lead to unwanted sudden elimination!

 

[eetenor]

Don't play for the min cash! Play you're way the whole way through!

Sims have shown that playing to min cash is more profitable than playing to win when you are short stacked on the bubble. It does of course require us to study the spot well but a simple just play to win strategy makes less profit over all.

 

[eetenor]

I feel guilty passing up good starting hands because of bubble.

At 15bb we should be opening good starting hands but that is dependent on the "good" range we are talking about. You can use the free version of GTO WIZARD to get a baseline of chip EV hands then use the strategy +EV tab as a guide to which hands not to open.

EG: UTG 17bb CEV we open K9s ev. 06 --KTs ev .15 we can now decide to open KTs+ --A7s ev .08 A9s ev .18 -- KJo ev 0 etc etc

We can use the free tool to study better bubble open ranges.

2 Points

ICM strategy has us shoving on bubbles not opening but that is based on Villains understanding ICM and folding more. That would be a table dynamics dependent action for us to take

If our V are going to call too wide thus making the pots multiway too often, we would again adjust our range tighter on the bubble with our EP opens.
The WIZARD in the above example has no V flatting until CO and then they call 6% of hands - We have to factor V calling in MP into our ranges.
Range might become AJo+ KJs+ no Kxo or Qxo etc TT+ etc etc

 

[OnyxD]

Some decent points have already been made. I would add that it's situational too. If the first ITM gives you back your investment, 70 places are paid and solid payouts start near or at the final table, you'll be wrong not taking chances on bubble. If you're seeing an overly tight table, same. Adjust basically. If the pay jump is big FOR YOU (e.g. you're building a BR from a small freeroll winning), might be worth playing it safe. Also, things like tourney and table dynamics, and even your board hitting luck that day can play a part in that decision. Some tourneys will have pre-bubbles and bubbles lasting for an hour, you can't wait it out.

 

[thedarkman]

How long is a piece of string? It depends on all manner of factors. The only guarantee is whichever you choose, you lose.

 

[Kaaskop63]

It depends how much they payout is.

 

[Igor Popadyk]

Of course, the strategy needs to be changed depending on the stage, but the main thing is the average stack, start from it, and you need to play a lot so that such a problem does not put pressure on you

 

[miroq]

There are lot of different factors:
- how big is payout
- payout is cash or ticket
- how the players at your table play
With 15 bb you don't have much space to see the flop, so it's basically a push or fold game.
If I have ~15 bb and I know that by folding all hands I will get a ticket, I get up from the computer and wait for the bubble to burst. Because then it doesn't matter if you finish 99th and win a ticket or if you fight for the final table.
If I see that I have loose players at the table, I wait for monsters (AA, KK, AK, QQ). If everyone folds, I try to raise in optimal circumstances, using my position and stealing blinds but no bluffing too much. Every raise my bet, I fold (except monsters).
If I have 15 bb and I know that by folding all hands I will get a ticket, I check afk and wait for the bubble to burst. Because then it doesn't matter if you finish 99th and win a ticket or if you play for the final table. It doesn't matter.