Do Players Actually Under-Bluff, or Are We Misreading Lines?

[puzzlefish]

This post follows asking ChatGPT's "Poker GPT" for an interesting topic to discuss on CardsChat.

I’ve been thinking about population tendencies lately and I’m starting to question the usual advice that players at low and mid stakes don’t bluff enough. In theory that makes sense, especially on the river, but in practice I keep running into spots where people take really aggressive lines that don’t add up, yet they still show up with some kind of value hand anyway. It makes me wonder if the bigger leak isn’t just under-bluffing, but players taking inconsistent lines with both bluffs and value, which makes decisions way tougher than they should be. Lately I’ve been focusing less on “do they bluff here” and more on whether their line actually tells a coherent story, and it’s changed how I approach bluff catching quite a bit. Curious if others have noticed the same thing or if you still feel like most players are just too value-heavy in these spots.

The following are my thoughts. What does everyone think? Is under-bluffing an actual leak or more a consequence of population tendencies at different stakes? I tend to think it is the latter. For example, why bother trying to bluff at low stakes if you are going to get called down by fish that don't even get your bluff.

And what about line coherence? Is incoherence a good indicator of a bluff or value play? I can count a few instances where weird bet sizing helped me to find a bluff, but mostly it was just players who didn't know how to bet size properly.

 

[LUKADONCICMVP]

they under bluff a lot in my opinion, but what do I know?

 

[puzzlefish]

they under bluff a lot in my opinion, but what do I know?

Yes generally the trend is underbluffing. What about yourself? Do you underbluff and do you recognize it as a leak or just a reality of the particular player pool you find yourself in?

 

[martinlgs]

To analyze a table, tournaments, and the players themselves, I believe it's necessary to play several tournaments with medium and high buy-ins, perhaps some low-to-medium buy-ins, and within these tournaments, during the ITM and Bubble stages

In micro and low-micro tournaments, people play and call anything... sometimes I see a guy calling crazy things, like they want to leave the tournament because the boss arrived (he was playing at the office), or because his husband arrived (he needs to make dinner), or whatever.

It's difficult to draw conclusions about online poker because it even varies depending on the poker room you play in. WPT isn't the same as GGPoker, CoinPoker, or YaPoker. And as I mentioned, the behavior also differs depending on the buy-in for the tournament, and even within the tournament, it varies depending on the stage. As we know, if you bluff with 15BB (let's say you're all-in) against someone with 200BB who already has 15BB in the pot, you'll go all-in if they have at least a pair.

 

[WrongUsername]

at microstakes they underbluff a ton.

 

[eetenor]

Mass data analysis has shown repeatedly that players even pros under bluff vs GTO.
As said above table dynamics matter - who is the player and how do they play is most important as you have found out by catching weird lines.
Villains will take weird lines with value as well because they let their emotions dictate their betting. IE -do not want to scare them away small bet -large bet opposite yes please go away I have AK

 

[bablovod]

I rarely encounter a bluff, but I can say that people play it with fairly large stakes, but it depends on the position. If a bluffing player without a position first sets a very aggressive pace, for example, with AQ or any of the pictures on a dry board, he will press until he encounters a 3-bet, then his fuse decreases, then you can say he is not bluffing enough, and if he tries to show up to scare and gets a call, then he probably bluffed too much if he loses or bluffs if he gets a fold, then whoever folded didn't bluff. What do you call it? Are players not bluffing enough?

 

[bablovod]

Maybe the translation is clumsy and something doesn't look right, I don't know