Why is it that we feel much more variance when we play little?

[Chicungulla]

I say that I am not regular in online tournaments I only play occasionally and it happens to me that I see a lot of variance. AA against A7 and on the flop 77 but kk against 10 J flop comes QKA. those things really discourage me

 

[1nsomn1a]

Recently, I only lose with badbeats, but this means that I put up and play only with the advantage that there is a sign of a good game, badbeats are part of poker no matter how much you play, put up with it, good luck

 

[Daniel72]

If you play one tourney a day then it means more to you and you feel the beats way more. Live poker is sometimes one tourney in a week!
But if you play millions of tourneys per hour, you wont see the beats, which is good.

 

[skin_ak]

you will alway see and remember the bad beat but never the good one like how many time you hit when you have limped in some one said to me one day some ones bad beat is anothers good beat evens its self out this dose not take away the hurt of a bad beat

 

[yanslad]

People who play low limit doesn't really play poker properly saying .. they rather pay to see the flop.. they do crazy thing that it's not +EV.. so I guess they do count on luck you know, but yet don't even know they are being God damn lucky LoL

 

[Dkerridge14]

Variance is the ups and downs of poker. Bad beats are sets vs gutshots and the gutshot rivers it. It’s going to happen but don’t pay attention to it on an individual basis. Maybe do a hand analysis and go over every spot where a bad beat could occur. You will soon realise that it doesn’t happen nearly as much as you think. It’s just you holding on to it. Of course that has to be over a reasonably large sample size. Not a thousand hands where all the bad beats occurred

 

[celtics33]

I say that I am not regular in online tournaments I only play occasionally and it happens to me that I see a lot of variance. AA against A7 and on the flop 77 but kk against 10 J flop comes QKA. those things really discourage me

this is exactly what many online poker players complain about these days and the trend in rising.
I for one have come across this many times. it seems to be the rule of play rather then the exception many times. according to the law of statistics and probability it should be the opposite. at the casino, this also can happen but imo at least to me this happens at a much smaller clip. online i can almost predict a wet flop when holding a good pair. it sounds crazy but the first thing that crosses my mind is watch a crazy wet board pop- up now! and as if magic it does I know many will say you get to see more flops online etc, but playing one tournament online and the same one at a casino there shouldnt be such vast varience because you will play the same number of flops if not less. thats just my 2 cents.

 

[Dkerridge14]

this is exactly what many online poker players complain about these days and the trend in rising.
I for one have come across this many times. it seems to be the rule of play rather then the exception many times. according to the law of statistics and probability it should be the opposite. at the casino, this also can happen but imo at least to me this happens at a much smaller clip. online i can almost predict a wet flop when holding a good pair. it sounds crazy but the first thing that crosses my mind is watch a crazy wet board pop- up now! and as if magic it does I know many will say you get to see more flops online etc, but playing one tournament online and the same one at a casino there shouldnt be such vast varience because you will play the same number of flops if not less. thats just my 2 cents.

Online MTTs it won’t feel as much due to the fact you usually see a lot more hands per hour

 

[ADRI7HO]

Unfortunately, the beadbeat is part of poker with nothing to do after all, yet it’s only partly gambling.
The key word is long term.



That's what I'm waiting for, so I'll finally have a good circle. :icon_clow

 

[celtics33]

Online MTTs it won’t feel as much due to the fact you usually see a lot more hands per hour

true. i actually wrote that in the last part of my post. but..... whether you play a single tournament online or live at a casino you will get about the same hands overall. so there shouldnt be such a big difference, correct? but as i stated earlier i see a difference..and that difference is eye-popping. its really hard to miss. thats just my take and experience on the matter. maybe someone else has a different experience which i respect and dont deny.

 

[DS3]

Frankly, playing a little or a lot does not make much difference in my opinion.

I have taken to calling bad beats 'contrived hands'...Contrived: deliberately created rather than arising naturally or spontaneously.

My game does not vary too much, but my sessions swing wildly regardless. The frustrating aspect is with a good outcome, it is as though I had little to do with it -it was simply good luck. All the hours playing, all the hours studying and it comes down to how many contrived hands I can avoid.

I want to feel I am playing well through a session but increasing I feel I have little influence over the outcome. I can sit through tens of hands getting nothing but rags then receive a monster every thirtieth hand or so as some sort of compensation. And this underlines the entire question of variance to me.

I honestly do not see variance, because surely that would be a good day or session along with the poor ones? My variance appears to comprise of endless mediocre to poor hands with the aforementioned monster coming along once in a blue moon.

I'd just appreciate the odd day of sun-running.

 

[YenRodriguez]

part of the game.
the annoyance will always be there when you are affected and the joy is irrepressible when it benefits you.

 

[Porras2424]

The inseparable friend who automatically lives and plays there in poker, who will be yesterday, today, tomorrow and always, that we must do, just play and hope that today is in our favor, patience, discipline, study, persevere and do not be afraid .. you do not always win, the only thing is that with our strategy we have more good days and less bad days, the variance should be our friend in the long term, let's be constant and keep THE tranquility .. that the positive variance join us on this path ,,, we will win in the long term ,, good luck guys .. we know how to wait. ,,, do not pay to lose ,,,

 

[Royal9012]

I say that I am not regular in online tournaments I only play occasionally and it happens to me that I see a lot of variance. AA against A7 and on the flop 77 but kk against 10 J flop comes QKA. those things really discourage me

When you pay a hand must be sure you have the best hand, if you not sure these, you don't must be surprised .

 

[easy play]

Try to play good games and put in more volume. Law of large numbers should work in your favour. At times looking at small sample size can be discouraging.

I lost 8 flips in a row couple of days back, lost 4 buyins in a 3 hour session.

 

[Luvepoker]

The problem when we play little is it hurt more as we dont have as many opportunity to play. I once went nearly 4 months without a cash. 4 freaking month, This being said at this time I would play 7 or 8 tournaments a month. It was a long down streak but not as bad as 4 months sound. How did I feel, like crap and the worst player in the world.

Another time i won 2 and finished 2nd of 4 small tournaments I played. I started to wonder if I was really that good.

Volume is what helps up put things into perspective. You will hear professional players who are helping people and will say it take 50 to 100 thousand hand to really see what a player is. Downswings of bad variance go that long as well. Poker is a long term game and we need to remember this and this.