Chasing the flush

angelaus · Aug 23, 2008

In tournaments I chase till the end..But in cash games it's up to the pot and raises..But mostly I chase till the end..

earache · Aug 23, 2008

I personllay love a flush draw. Not may fovorite to push with but if I out chip the other person I may push to knock him out or get him to fold. But It all depends on the situation. I may chase to the river or see the turn. If I dont hit the turn I am not as likley to call the river if I have to pay too much to see it. But a flush draw is a good play when the board isnt paired. 33% is a decent chance to gain more chips.

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

jamesdadeliverer said:
In hold'em any 2-card flush usually wins; just beware with less than a jack high. Full houses are rare but you can tell a lot of the time when somebody makes one.

What do you mean by this? You're not saying that a flush draw succeeds over 50% of the time, because I know you know better than that. I think you're saying that if you hold two hearts and make a flush, you usually have the winning hand, whereas if you only have one low heart and there are four on the board, another player often has the higher heart and better flush? Do I understand you correctly?

Not to disparage anyone, but since we have this 50-post target, there's a lot more bad advice being posted, like "never draw to a flush" or "go with your gut." You can learn a lot on CardsChat, but only if you make the effort to discern quality advice from that sot of thing. If you put in the effort, you'll learn what constitutes quality analysis, and you'll start to recognize certain names and that some of the members here are worth listening to. James is high on the list. With the posting frenzy, the quality is a little diluted, but it's still there. It's not a bad thing, really. There are a lot more threads now that are back to the basics - things like how to calculate odds, size bets, figure equity and expected value.

If you're a newbie, don't be afraid of being wrong. You actually learn a hell of a lot when your dearly held notions are challenged and someone successfully helps you to open your eyes and see things the right way. And there IS a right way. There are many situations in poker where a given move is provably correct or incorrect. You might make the wrong move and still win, or vice versa, but over the long run, such play will cost you.

Lest I sound like a know-it-all, I've probably posted more incorrect theories than anyone. But I sure have gotten an education on here. If you're new to CardsChat, you've stumbled on to a jewel - probably the friendliest and most helpful poker tool on the internet.
Gary the Worden

shark_fin_alert · Aug 23, 2008

usually when flop a flush you assume that youve got 9 outs. Well mathematically it scorrect. However, if you reason with yourself it's really wronf of havinh 9 outs. instead of having a percentage of 36% (from the 9 outs) youll really only have about 3-6 outs taking into consideration of your oppoenets cards that have folded preflop in which its a 50 percent chance for each of the players that have folded to have actually folded one of your required outs. so dont alwasy lighten up when you flop a flush draw and do not risk it for the draw if you flop the draw. you see many players often go broke than hit when they risk their draw. Better off just calling pot odds than shovinh it for all .However, their is an exception when your extremely short stacked to under 9 bigblind sor so. If not youll be making a huge mistake which most players would do.

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

shark_fin_alert said:
usually when flop a flush you assume that youve got 9 outs. Well mathematically it scorrect. However, if you reason with yourself it's really wronf of havinh 9 outs. instead of having a percentage of 36% (from the 9 outs) youll really only have about 3-6 outs taking into consideration of your oppoenets cards that have folded preflop in which its a 50 percent chance for each of the players that have folded to have actually folded one of your required outs. so dont alwasy lighten up when you flop a flush draw and do not risk it for the draw if you flop the draw. you see many players often go broke than hit when they risk their draw. Better off just calling pot odds than shovinh it for all .However, their is an exception when your extremely short stacked to under 9 bigblind sor so. If not youll be making a huge mistake which most players would do.

I'm not EXACTLY sure what you're saying here, but I think there is one major error in your approach. I think you're saying that you're reducing your number of outs by counting cards which you think your opponents might have folded?

Your opponents could have folded anything. They are all unknown cards to you and equal in value to all the unknown cards in the deck. You really can't say that instead of 9 outs, you only have 6 because your opponents might have folded 3 of your out cards. That's not poker. That's using a crystal ball.

The only exception to this, and it's a pretty vague one, is that if there are big cards on the flop like A or K, and you're holding a middle pair - you must figure that it's LESS likely that all your opponents folded an ace or a King than folded random small cards; therefore it's MORE likely a surviving opponent has you beat by pairing one of these big board cards. Just common sense.

But you're going down the wrong path if you're basing your outs on speculating that a certain number of hearts are in folded hands or in other live hands. They may well be. But your calculations must only be based on what you know. And you know that there are, for example, nine hearts unaccounted for.

I hope you get this because it hurts my brain to try to explain it further.

asianpride54 · Aug 23, 2008

I like to chase flush because when you had a high kicker flush you almost feel your unstoppable and you know nothing can beat you so you start strategizing and I like to bet if i have a flush draw from the flop because i get both the turn and river to hit the flush and plus when i bet on the flop most people fold except one so i have less people to think about. Chasing flushes is always fun lol.

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

asianpride54 said:
I like to chase flush because when you had a high kicker flush you almost feel your unstoppable and you know nothing can beat you so you start strategizing and I like to bet if i have a flush draw from the flop because i get both the turn and river to hit the flush and plus when i bet on the flop most people fold except one so i have less people to think about. Chasing flushes is always fun lol.

Tell me, what are your odds of hitting? If somebody puts you all in, do you want to chase more, of does that take the fun out of it? You'll just chase - no matter how big or small the bet. Would you ever take the initiative and bet instead of call?

asianpride54 · Aug 23, 2008

I told i like to bet on the flop when i have a flush draw from the flop but usually i won't chase if the money is too much for me. I usually make good decisions to go all in or not to. You have to be good at chasing the flushes like me to understand

jk.

jdeliverer · Aug 23, 2008

glworden said:
What do you mean by this? You're not saying that a flush draw succeeds over 50% of the time, because I know you know better than that. I think you're saying that if you hold two hearts and make a flush, you usually have the winning hand, whereas if you only have one low heart and there are four on the board, another player often has the higher heart and better flush? Do I understand you correctly?

Yeah, I should have been more clear; you'll usually win when you MAKE your flush and there are only three cards on the board.

Grats on 200 posts by the way.

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

pitiful posts

jamesdadeliverer said:
Yeah, I should have been more clear; you'll usually win when you MAKE your flush and there are only three cards on the board.

Grats on 200 posts by the way.

Heck, I wasn't even aware of the 200. What does that give me? Entry to the exalted level of freerolls?

I have no problem posting a lot. In fact, I have the opposite problem. I guess I tend to run at the mouth. I'm in a mode now where i'm just not playing much - but I'm learning a lot through CardsChat. Kind of consolidating and expanding on my knowledge.

Isn't this thread pitiful? We were all beginners once and there's really no shame in putting out some wrong strategy or something as long as you're ready to learn from your mistakes, but to put such bogus info out there with such conviction is mind-boggling. I get involved because I want to help players get the correct info, but you put it out there and then there's just another string of "go with your gut" or "play it because it feels good."

There ought to be separate sections of CardsChat. One for people who really want to progress in the game and the other for bullshitters.

I'm starting to come to a better realization, though, that the majority of people just don't want to get better. That's good for the rest of us because it should make it easier to win.

This theme is popping up on other threads, too. The law of unforeseen consequences. People want to freeroll and they now have to make fifty posts, so there's a deluge of crap advice. I really wouldn't mind if it lead to some decent discussion, but people just ignore the good stuff and go on lobbing crap back and forth. I guess if you're just trying to reach fifty, no real reason to read, let alone work to understand, what others have written.
G

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

Show us how

Syfted said:
Use luck to your advantage when necessary.

Man, THAT'S what I'm doing wrong! Please tell us how to do this.
Gary

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

jamesdadeliverer said:
If you really hit the flush the "large majority" of the time, get me a call so I can put in your buyin to the WSOP. The chance of hitting the flush is only 40%.

Is this correct, James? You're the odds master, but rule of four puts it more in the 36% range. Wizard of odds says 34.97% or 1.86:1. I always shortcut it to 2:1, but it's actually a little bit better than that.

jdeliverer · Aug 23, 2008

Nah, 35% is right. I don't really know why I said 40%. Not thinking straight. Guess I'm getting a little fed up too with all this bogus "advice".

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

GOOD PLAY

PlayedYou73 said:
I was playing a freeroll earlier today and got chewed out by a guy for chasing a flush. I had 2 suited cards and 2 more came on the flop. I also had the ace. On the flop, there was only king high. He ended up having a pair of kings with a weak kicker and thought I was a donk for chasing the flush. With outs that included a flush and an ace I don't think it was a donk call at all consider he only min raised it as well...what is there to scare me?

You are absolutely right. Good play. You had 9 flush outs plus three aces for 12 outs. Rule of 2 means multiply outs by 2 to get approximate PROBABILITY of hitting on next card. Twelve outs times 2 equals approximately 24% chance of hitting. Round to 25%, and you see that you have 75% chance of not hitting compared to 25% chance of hitting, which boils down to 3:1 odds against hitting on the turn. By mini-betting, he almost certainly gave you the correct odds to call.

Rule of four applies to PROBABILITY of hitting on next two cards - i.e. by the river. Twelve times four = 48%. Round to 50% and you see your chances are fifty-fifty or 1:1 odds.

Your opponent played the hand poorly. He's the donk, not you. Now the question is - what can you do to get him to continue such lousy play? I'd say, be the lousy bumbling player he thinks you are and when you hit again on a positive eV situation like this, act like a doofus and he'll continue to spin out of control and play on tilt. You just keep your head, buddy.
Gary

glworden · Aug 23, 2008

I forgot to ask. Did you win?

Doesn't matter, really. Win or lose, positive eV play all-around.

pifan · Aug 23, 2008

i hate being on the other end of the chasers when you definately dont give them the odds to call on a draw and they draw to it seems the next card up is the suit that there is two of already or the strait card they end up taking a pot they shouldnt of even been in happened to me in a big pot today makes you kinda gunshy so i end up way overbetting the pot

FreeFalling22 · Aug 24, 2008

today i might hit a flush every time i go for it
tomorrow i might go for one 30 times and not hit a one
but i think you should go for it if you can afford it not as desperation and dont let someone put you all in till you got it

cexandmoney · Aug 24, 2008

your only a donkey if

your only a donkey if you have to chase runner runner to get it. 4 flush on the flop and your fine 3 flush on the flop and your not only a donkey but just plain rich. if you can afford to play that way you dont need help or addvise. sorry to be blunt.

glworden · Aug 24, 2008

cexandmoney said:
your only a donkey if you have to chase runner runner to get it. 4 flush on the flop and your fine 3 flush on the flop and your not only a donkey but just plain rich. if you can afford to play that way you dont need help or addvise. sorry to be blunt.

Why do you post advice like this? And the guy before you too. Are you just going for the 50 posts?

Four on the flop and you should go for it? Regardless of bet size, calling odds, pot odds? Somebody puts you all in, $100 in a $2 pot - and you should go for it - just because you have four to a flush?

But if you only have three to a flush, always fold. Even if you have other draws. Even if the call is dirt cheap?

Every decision after the flop and turn is based on the conditions at the time. Your 3-flush on the flop could turn into a 4-flush on the turn. What's your advice then? The correct answer is: there is NO blanket advice. It depends on calling odds and pot odds. If you think it depends on gut feel or you do it because you ALWAYS call with a four flush draw, then play that way. But you shouldn't be giving advice like that.

There are other ways to play these things, of course, including bluffing. But cold calling against the odds is just plain stupid.

sorry to be blunt

AlexeiVronsky · Aug 24, 2008

I do think that otherwise good players do sometimes fail to call sufficiently with their flush draws. When you're facing a continuation bet with a four flush against an opponent who may well be making a standard continuation bet with nothing or with one or two overs I don't think there's anything wrong with making the call on the flop and maybe even the turn. They may well be betting an inferior hand to yours and if you do make only a pair on the turn it may well be the best hand. Or if you float them with a flush draw, you may be able to take the hand away from them on the turn or river if they give up on their cbetting. While I would advise many players to give up on their flush without at least the nut draw and two overs to the board I don't think that it's necessary to give up on flush draws nearly as much as mid-level players seem to think it is. A flush draw with two live cards is a powerful hand against just higher cards and you may even have the current best hand. While I generally prefer to be betting or raising with my draws, if you do opt to call I don't think it's necessarily as bad of a play as many presume if it is even a bad play at all.

markpro · Aug 25, 2008

Pot odds and potential odds are very important. If you call a hugge raise! even if you manage to catch the flush, its very likely your opponent knows u were trying to catch so he will be very cautious, so potential odds go down a lott in this case! On the other hand if its a small raise, you could even give it a reraise! This could win you the pot right there, and if not you always have the chance to catch and make your opponent have no clue of what you have. The major risk in this though is a reraise on his part and making u risk loosing a bigger stake or folding what could have been the winning hand. It all depends on who your playing, what your read is, and all the tiny cermunstances in the game.

LUCKY-STRIKE · Aug 25, 2008

FIRST POST

OK, first post here, but can someone clear up these percentages for me?

if we only deal with the flush, i.e. we aren't looking to hit top pair to win also.

then on the flop if we have 4 to the flush, that leaves us with 9 out of 47 cards that will give us a win.

so we have P=1-( (38/47) . (37/46) ) = 0.35

so this gives us a 35% of hitting the flush in the next 2 cards dealt.

But hitting it ON the turn would be P=1-( (38/47) ) = 0.1915

and slightly the same for the ON the river having failed to hit it on the turn.

so my question(s) is/are: if your opponent bets a quarter of the pot on the flop, this is giving you 5:1 pot odds yes ? in which case the minority of times you hit, it will pay off with +ve EV ?

so if you are playing against a player you know well and they give you the correct odds on the flop, but you know they will either try to bluff or bet big on turn, would it still be correct to call on the flop?

moreover, i read somewhere that only experienced players bluff on the turn...
i cannot think of any reason this would be... any answers?

Chasing the flush

angelaus

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earache

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glworden

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shark_fin_alert

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glworden

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asianpride54

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glworden

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jdeliverer

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