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Message: [QUOTE="John A, post: 2379027, member: 88730"] [b]Polished Poker Vol. II Preview[/b] A quick question from the Vol. II workbook to get your poker juices going. Question 2, pg 46. You open in the Co with 9s9d. A loose aggressive regular (VPIP 30 / PFR 25 / 3-bet 10%) in your game 3-bets you to 10 BBs from the button. The action folds back to you. What's your best course of action? [CENTER] [B][ ] Call [ ] Fold [ ] 4-bet to 23 BBs [ ] 4-bet to 28 BBs[/B] [/CENTER] [spoiler]Answer: 4-bet to 28 BBs. You want to increase your fold equity in this spot against a loose and aggressive opponent. If you can do this properly, then 4-bet and calling off your stack is the highest EV play long term. It all comes down to fold frequency, because you want to reduce the possibility of 4-bet calling to make the play as high of an EV play as possible. So the slightly larger 4-bet sizing will increase the likelihood of your opponent calling with some of their marginal hands that still have decent equity against you. If you decrease your 4-bet sizing to 23, you will most likely increase your opponents calling range, so the EV of the play becomes slightly more unclear because there are too many variables to calculate properly. However, if your opponent folds at least 70% of the time to your 4-bet, which is reasonable if you assume at least a 16% 3-bet frequency in this spot, then your 4-bet is profitable no matter what play your opponent makes. If they jam to your 4-bet, then you have at least 38% equity still against their range for an EV of just over +3. Your total EV for the play, assuming that your opponent either 5-bets or folds, and his calling range is generally strong if he does call is +7.08. You will win the 14.5 that it's the pot 70% of the time when you 4-bet and your opponent folds. 30% of the time they will jam, and you'll call the remaining 69 to win 104.5 and you'll have 38% equity versus their range. 14.5 (.7) + (104.5 (.38) - 69 (.62)) = +7.08 As opposed to saying that your opponent will only fold 50% of the time to the smaller 4-bet, call at least 10% and jam the rest of the time. In that case we end up with a negative EV solution over the long run. 14.5 (.4) + (104.5 (.38) - (74 (.62)) = -.37 Calling is not a good option against a good loose and aggressive opponent who can push you off a lot of hands. Against a weaker regular, or against any fish or more passive opponent, calling would become the higher EV play. There's an argument to be made about calling against an opponent's wide range in this spot. However in reality, most players struggle with navigating this spot OOP against a good and aggressive opponent. [/spoiler] [/QUOTE]

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