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Message: [QUOTE="Figaroo2, post: 3765921, member: 103914"] 44/20 w/ 30% AGG is pretty loose passive so when he's bet twice postflop I'd put a fair amount of aces in his range, I'd say probably more than half his combos on the turn are Ax. The question I'd be asking is, what else is he betting the turn with if he doesn't have an ace? If he doesn't have an ace then off of his aggression stat he might still be betting his own draw but draws are few (67 and diamonds) and the diamond draw gets there. I dont see this sort of player double barrelling any pair under the ace once he gets called on the flop, but I wouldn't totally exclude it. His bet sizing is a little nervous on the turn but I feel he still thinks he's fav. The river check doesn't mean much for a 30% agg stat, Id expect him to check everything except a very strong hand here. Problem with the low runout is that there will now be a some two pair combos and I doubt he folds 2 pair or a strong top pair on that board to anything but a shove and I wouldn't count on that especially if he has the ace of diamonds. I don't think I would bluff here against a guy who could easily have two pair who likely won't fold no matter the sizing. I think he might fold A2 A3 A6, maybe A8 to your 30bb river bet but not AT AJ AQ AK and all the two pairs. Id have a peek at his WTSD% and if it was more than 24% I'm not bluffing. As we don't have that much invested prior to the river I'd just check it down here with our showdown value and hope he was betting with 67..or maybe going a bit mad with 88 66. I think maybe preflop J9os isn't the greatest, it would have been nicer suited. [/QUOTE]

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