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[QUOTE="Figaroo2, post: 3771219, member: 103914"]
44 ........smiling, makes some sense.
Well in the passive players eyes 444 still doesn't beat the flush so just like his Ax range he's checking and calling the turn hoping to improve to give him the boat and beat the flush. 
When he doesn't boat from the time taken to call I agree he probably still fears the flush. Aces2 makes the point that he might have been considering raising.....hmmm not sure about that, in my experience the passive nitty tendency is not to get a lot of money in the middle without a very strong hand and a set on a 3 to a flush board is only a medium hand.
Can we get him to fold his Ax, yeah probably, this is 100nl, I'd still expect him to be a better thinking fish than a micro stakes complete beginner not folding any pair sort of fish and he has over 100bb which indicates he's won at least one hand already.
I know its only 45 hands but there must already be some clue in his wtsd% as to how much of a station he is.   If you have already tagged him as foldable, presumably you have seen him fold to pressure already rather than station something.
So how much to bet to get him to fold Ax here? I honestly don't know but i'd favour a slight overbet in most cases, I don't think a big overshove achieves anything more than a smaller overbet. He either believes or he doesn't and both the shove and slight overbet are polarising enough imo.
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