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[QUOTE="AlexTheOwl, post: 4015173, member: 269625"]
You see the villain as passive, likely to be behind, and unlikely to bluff? So you'd bet here? Do I understand correctly? Thanks for clarifying.

So if I understand correctly, you are going with population tendencies here rather than the actual PFR, because of the 55 hand sample size being too small?

I agree that his 3-bet calling range pre-flop is probably not much different from his raising range.
The villain's PFR and position are the main factors I'd use when estimating his range, even if I only had 25 hands of data. Maybe I'm wrong.

I have no doubt that at your stakes the population tendency for the UTG opening range would be closer to Nash, which would include a lot more pairs, and hands with two broadway cards.

But that range in your example seems really bizarre to me. JTs and T9s but no AQo? Why? Other than the fact that it gets us to 60%? What am I missing?

I get your general point that you have fewer A[I]x[/I] hands in your estimated range for the villain than I do, and therefore think the hero is more likely to be WA than WB.
 
You haven't convinced me that the hero is probably WA. But I do appreciate you taking the time to explain your thinking, and I found this exchange useful!

P.S. As a Bovada / Ignition Card Catcher customer and an IT professional, I'd just like to say thanks for how quickly Ace reacted to the change in the software!
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