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Message: [QUOTE="zachvac, post: 666228, member: 26306"] Read the post I just posted, that should clear up the second part of this. For the first part, all of poker is based on when the money goes in. Q5 called 25 chips with a 22.12% to win. We are assuming that AA will call off his entire stack (forget the exact amount but significantly more than 25) with 18.18% to win. Actually, I'll recalculate it including that. With this call, he is 10.6% to hit the turn. If he wins the hand after hitting the turn, he wins 418 chips. If he loses after hitting the turn, he loses 418+25 = 443 chips. If he misses the turn he loses 25 chips. So his expected gain? 0.894*-25 + 0.106*.1818*-443 + 0.106*8182*443 = 7.53 chip gain per hand. So although that's a far cry from my 19.3 estimate, assuming we win every time we hit, it's still a +ev play if we know the 2 hands and we know that they will call an all-in on the turn. To re-iterate. If the approach of AA is to call all the way unimproved and the approach of the Q5 to fold the turn unimproved and push and end up getting all in on the turn if getting trips or 2-pair, and this particular hand was played out a million times, Q5 would emerge the winner. Doesn't make it a good play, but in this situation playing like that against an opponent like that is a winning play. And for AA to ridicule a call like that, when it's AA's own fault for giving the other player implied odds, putting all his money in after Q5 hits, is just plain silly. Implied odds are important, but in the hand you explained for the play to be profitable, you would need an enormous bankroll to sustain hits and not drop down in levels. Which is definitely not possible if you play the hand like that and lose it 10x in a row, which is very probable since you are only winning it [B]12.12% [/B] of the time. Secondly, I don't suggest making marginally profitable plays like this in larger variance games like NLH, especially in a $1/2 game where people make so many mistakes. More ideal situations will arise than this in my opinion.[/quote] [/QUOTE]

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