Cash game variance

arahel_jazz · Apr 18, 2008

Cruel mistress, that variance can be. I knew 47/100 BB was too good to sustain over 500+ hands.

But when you have two sessions where you have AK and are way, way ahead going into the river... It all falls down... The reason you can't see the last session is because it is parallel with the edge of the graph...

odinscott · Apr 18, 2008

Umm is that $7 profit at the highest? =p

SeanyJ · Apr 18, 2008

I guess you are playing .01/.02 then huh? I had a point where in like 4,000 hands at 10NL I was down about $80 so yeah you'll hit some rough spots along the way

arahel_jazz · Apr 18, 2008

odinscott said:
Umm is that $7 profit at the highest? =p

Yup. uber-micro .01/.02.

I was attempting to follow proper bankroll management...

odinscott · Apr 18, 2008

At those levels variance is alot worse imo, because for the extra 10 or 20 cents alot of people will chase their flushes and straights.

zachvac · Apr 18, 2008

odinscott said:
At those levels variance is alot worse imo, because for the extra 10 or 20 cents alot of people will chase their flushes and straights.

Well not worse, higher. That means that you'll have bigger swings up and down (as shown in the first part of the graph

).

KingCurtis · Apr 18, 2008

for some reason i cant bring myself to play super micro limit cash games to build my br, even multitabling i just want to kill some people for there extremely loose calls

4Aces · Apr 18, 2008

Variance is a b1tch! I guess you just have to hold on tight until the storm passes.

The bad news arahel, is that things can get A LOT worse than this. I remember when I played 20,000 hands of NL5. I was running 22 buyins below expectation.

odinscott · Apr 18, 2008

zachvac said:
Well not worse, higher. That means that you'll have bigger swings up and down (as shown in the first part of the graph ).

That is correct, that would be the more fitting term.

blankoblanco · Apr 18, 2008

KingCurtis said:
for some reason i cant bring myself to play super micro limit cash games to build my br, even multitabling i just want to kill some people for there extremely loose calls

but yet you can play play money..

zachvac · Apr 18, 2008

How about this graph of the last 2 days? The first part up to $200 is yesterday and the blip up and then fall down is today. Both days I only played about 1k hands, about an hour and a half. Today I got:

KK vs. AA 3 times
set over set 4 times
higher full boat over set full boat (I had 55 he had Q8 on Q588x board)

But then again I had plenty of set over sets yesterday, so although I'm not happy with today, at least I'm not down since 2 days ago. Oh well, always more poker to play

.

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Cash game variance

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