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[QUOTE="Effexor, post: 725784, member: 11100"]
The only reason I picked the AA is that it's easy to just look in my database and add up the numbers. Trying to go through every hand to see how many flush draws I hit vs how many I missed would be far too laborious. There is no psychological reason that I picked that hand other than it's the one hand that has the highest EV, and can represent my "luck".

I guess my point was about the long run. Where I do believe that over the long run the statistics will hold up, if I am in the bottom 2% for catching pocket aces over 55,211 hands, I'm not sure that I'll be alive long enough for the statistics to catch up. Then if you compare my ROI against someone else of equal skill, but has actually had AA 250 times (the expected value) their ROI would be [B]significantly[/B] higher. Play 39 straight hands at a full ring game where you get pocket aces every hand and see how much you are up.

If I am in a coinflip situation, and lose 32 out of 37 times (which happened btw), yes I know the next time I'm still 50% to win, but how long would it take to even out?

All things considered though with "luck" is that I firmly believe that skill can overcome this. I deposited $100 2 years ago, and am still up despite running worse than whats expected. There are so many terrible players out there that it is possible to win despite getting outdrawn and getting bad cards. I'm proof of that and I'm far from being great at poker.
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