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Message: [QUOTE="Chemist, post: 4358173, member: 55995"] I would compare it to playing darts or working in a bar. When I was new to these and struggling to do the calculations I was surprised at how some people who had perhaps not been so good with mathematics at school could add up scores and drinks really quickly. The trick was that they didn't have to add everything up each time because they remembered common combinations. Treble Seventeen wasn't 3 x 17 (or 3*10+3*7), it was just known to be 51, and this was often scored together with other common darts which made other memorable numbers. Similarly, 3 bottles of Stella Artois and 2 bottles of Carlsberg wasn't 3x£1.70+2x£1.40 it was the known numbers £5.10 and £2.80, and these often occur in combination with a cola for the nominated driver, giving other remembered numbers. [B]What appears to be instinct can sometimes be experience.[/B] An experienced statistical player can recognise card combinations for which they have previously already done the calculations a few times. [I](or perhaps they just know it is their lucky hand with which they have won more often than they have lost).[/I] Looking at the numbers, the end result of calculations are a number that needs to be plus EV. [I]'If you win you get 26$, if you lose you give 38$'[/I], (assuming this has been normalised to equal probability of each), is negative ev, so it is not a good choice. But with 70% probabiltiy of a win it is actually plus ev, which would indicate it should be played. However instinct can say, regardless of the numbers, it sometimes isn't good to perhaps give away a large amount with only the opportunity to win a small amount, if there is not going to be enough repeats to gain the long term advantage. [/QUOTE]

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