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Message: [QUOTE="blankoblanco, post: 636910, member: 11119"] for the sake of argument we'll say you bought in for $5 at .05/.10, and posted the blind out of position because you're just going to shove any way. if it works and they all fold, you win $0.15, unless others came in the pot before you. sometimes there will be a limper or two before you, sometimes a raiser (although perhaps you don't want to do this when someone's raised and shown strength, i don't know). let's just say you average $0.25 profit each time everyone folds to your shove. if you get called and lose, you lose $5.00 if you get called and win, you win $5.05+ (depends on if one of the blinds calls you and also limpers). if you're making that big overbet with any two and you get called, you're probably way behind. for the sake of argument, we'll figure you're 25% to win when called, on average (i mean, you'll have a decent hand once in a while). we'll ignore times when you get two callers, and say that the added amount in the pot makes up for the fact that you're almost always crushed when this happens and evens out. that'd just be too complicated so when you get called, 75% of the time you lose $5, and you suck out 25% of the time for ~$5.20. that averages to a loss of just under $2.50 each hand your all-in is called. with rake, we'll just say $2.50. by my rough estimations, each time everyone folds, you'll average about $0.25 in pure profit, due to other players sometimes being in the pot. each time you get called, you lose ~$2.50. in order for this to be break even, you'd need the [I]whole table[/I] to fold 10/11 times, or 91% of the time. for it to be profitable, they need to fold more i don't think it's likely at all that players would fold enough for this to be profitable even short-term. at 6 max you might have a better chance because there are less good hands out, but people also adjust their calling ranges shorthanded. when someone sits down and immediately shoves all-in, a lot of players will suspect he's just trying for a quick blind steal.. players do this often when they're tilting and/or stuck for some amount of money, at all limits. even if it did make money in the short-term, people would make notes on you over time and adjust their calling ranges in short: just play good poker and win money that way :) [/QUOTE]

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