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Message: [QUOTE="ABorges, post: 837449, member: 21646"] Thanks for the advice Ice. I think pushing preflop is way too big of an overbet to be profitable. Let's make two assumptions here, which may or may not be right, to calculate my EV: 1. His 3 betting range is as tight as AK/JJ+. So 8 different combinations of AK, 6 of JJ, 6 of QQ, 6 of AA (lets ignore the single time he has KK). 2. He'll only call a push with AA and KK. Only big loose fish will call a 4 bet push with less than that in this spot given the situation. So, he'll call 6/26 times, or approximately 23% of the time. Now, if I'm seeing right, we're risking $33.80 (he was shorter than me, therefore his stack - my original raise) to win $4.85 (my original raise + his 3 bet + blinds). We are then winning $4.85 on the hand 77% of the time and are 4 to 1 dogs the other 23%. An all in pot between us two is somewhere very near 70$, where my equity is approximately 18%, or $12.60. We lose $33.80 - $12.60 = $21.20 in this case. So, lets finally calculate our EV: When he folds: $4.85 * 0.77 = $3.73 When he calls: -$21.20 * 0.23 = -$4.88 Overall: $3.73 - $4.88 = -$1.15 I probably made some mistake somewhere in the middle that compromises the result, in which case please alert me to it. If I don't suck at math problems, which you shouldn't too much, this tells us that, if all assumptions are correct, we are losing money when we do this 4 bet. Of course, if you throw in AQ or TT in his 3 bet range, or if he's calling with AK or QQ as well, it's a slightly better move, but I think there are more profitable ways of playing this hand. If I 4 bet isn't it better to make it something like $9.50-$11? That may make him flat call or induce a shove with a couple hands you have beat. On another topic it sounds very nitty to fold KK preflop, but if he 5 bets when you make that kind of 4 bet is there anyway you can do it? I mean, noone pushes less than AA for 125+ BBs, right? Though you are getting like 2-1 on the call... Back to what happened, having decided to flat the 3 bet, I agree I played the flop terrible. After the stupid sized raise I should have put in the rest of my stack. Also, thoughts on calling the flop and leading or c/r on non diamond turn? Damn, poker's hard... [/QUOTE]

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