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Message: [QUOTE="isaac, post: 1697917, member: 21713"] [B][COLOR=blue]4. Know thy hand history.[/COLOR][/B] Here we're discussing how this particular hand has played out: who bet when and how much? Start looking for betting patterns, as different people will have different patterns. A few general issues: [B]Check-raises[/B]: when an opponent check-raises, he is sending the message that his hand is unusually powerful. He knows you are betting and he doesn't care. What's more, he was confident enough to risk your checking behind in his quest to get more money in the pot. These types of bets will usually mean one of three things: either your opponent was monsterously strong and slowplayed an earlier street, or the last card just helped your opponent in some way, or he is bluffing in a situation where he thinks he can scare you off your hand. As a general rule, trust check-raises from passive players. Completely. If you don't have a sneaky MONSTER (and I mean MONSTER with a capital *everything*) you should be folding to this raise. People often ask "can I ever escape from pocket aces?" This would be one situation where escaping would be easy. Another general rule is that the more aggressive a player is, the more likely a check-raise is a bluff. I would say that until an opponent has an aggression factor of at least 2 you shouldn't worry much about a check-raise semi-bluff, and until he has an aggression factor of at least 4 you shouldn't worry much about a check-raise bluff. People are very quick to put a player on a bluff when he check-raises; I believe this event is much rarer than most people think. One caveat to this: check-raises on the flop are far more likely to be bluffs or weak hands than check-raises on ANY other street. On the flop, people will often take a check-raise line against a frequent c-bettor, even with hands like "bottom pair, no kicker" because they know that their opponent will frequently have pure air. So: a check-raise on the flop usually means "I can beat ace-high," but a check-raise on a later street usually means "I can beat YOU." [B]Check-calls[/B]: this play is highly player-specific. Against a passive calling station this means "I have two cards. Look! Spades are pretty. I like pie." Against a tight and moderately aggressive player this often means "I'm on a draw." Against a highly aggressive player this often means "I have a monster and I'm going to let you bet yourself to death." Check-calls are precursors to check-raises on later streets from very aggressive players; from very passive players, they just precede more check-calls. [B]Donkbets[/B]: a "donkbet" is when someone who does NOT have the betting lead makes an unexpected bet. For instance, if a player called your preflop raise but then leads into you on the flop, that would be a donkbet. Similarly, if a player calls your flop bet but then leads on the turn, that would also be a donkbet. At these stages, a donkbet should be interpreted as saying "that card helped me." The more passive your opponent, the more straightforward this interpretation is. When a passive player comes alive on a third straight card, or a fourth flush card, or a pairing of the board, or some odd-looking random card, you should expect that the card has helped his hand out and he is now value-betting. Of course, how strong his hand is remains to be seen, but the card has improved him. Don't expect that this means he has the nuts: I've seen passive players wake up and bet the fourth heart...because it gave them two pair. On the other hand, very aggressive players love to donkbet on scare cards. This is a cheaper bluff than a check-raise but it works just as often at these levels, and many aggressive players will take advantage of a turn ace or a third/fourth club, or a board pair to try and steal the pot. Be aware of this. [B]Unexpected checks[/B]: a player who has been betting steadily in the hand suddenly starts to check. What does this mean? Well, one obvious interpretation is that he has been bluffing and has now given up on the hand. Most players are straightforward enough that this will be the case. Against a medium-aggressive opponent, this will often be a good opportunity to bet with any two cards, since your folding equity will be through-the-roof. Another common situation is that a player flops a decent hand -- say top pair on a T-high board -- and then slows way down when the turn brings a K. They are worried about the overpair, and so have stopped betting. That does not necessarily mean they are ready to fold; some players will go from betting/raising to check/calling all the way to showdown. However, when an aggressive player stops being aggressive, that's usually a sign that your situation is not as dire as you thought it was. Beware of the hyperaggressive opponent who unexpectedly checks, ESPECIALLY if he check/calls a scare card. For some reason, these players have taken the "strong = weak, weak = strong" philosophy to heart, and will often bet with little or nothing but immediately slowplay the moment they get a hand. Watch your opponents carefully to see if the turn check usually means they are giving up or if it usually means they are trapping you. [B]Bet-check-bet[/B]: a strange-looking but rather common three-street line is "bet the flop, check behind on the turn, bet the river," where the opponent has check/called the whole way. Against an aggressive opponent, this river bet is often what we call a "desperation bluff." The hand has no showdown value so the villain bets in the hopes that you will fold the best hand. Since you've shown little or no strength the whole hand through, they feel they have strong folding equity (which is true), and they are now attacking in a last-ditch effort to scoop up the pot. However, you need to be aware of what the board looked like. Another common reasoning behind this line is that the flop bet was with nothing, the turn gave the opponent a draw, and the river either made the draw or missed. If an obvious draw arrived on the end, you would really need to know more about your opponent before you knew if this was a bluff or not. Calling against some opponents will be extremely +EV even with bottom pair; against other opponents it will be -EV with anything short of a powerhouse. Again, watch your opponents and take notes on what their lines mean. Our fifth and final commandment ties in to everything we've already discussed: [B][COLOR=blue]5. Know thy image.[/COLOR][/B] "Image" is how the other players at the table perceive YOU. Against some opponents, this will be the very most important commandment. Against others, it will not matter at all. It all depends on how attentive your particular opponent is. How do we start to figure out our image? [B]Only worry about image with second-level thinkers.[/B] For some of you, this is your first segue into third-level thinking. First-level thinking is asking, "what is my hand?" Second-level thinking is asking, "what is my opponent's hand?" Third-level thinking is asking, "what does my opponent think my hand is?" Obviously third-level thinking is irrelevant against a first-level thinker. However, most opponents will at least make some token effort to guess your hand, so against your better opponents understanding your image will be important. When you have a complete idiot who never looks past his own hand while playing the game, don't worry about image -- you'll just be wasting your time and effort. [B]Your cards only affect your image when you SHOW them.[/B] In the last five straight hands you've had AA, KQ (flopped trips), QQ, JT (flopped straight), and 55 (flopped set). You won all five hands before showdown, and you never show your hands without being forced to do so. Recognize that your table image is now absolute CRAP. Yes, you had the goods. Sure, your hands were actually powerhouses. Of course, your starting hand selection is tight. None of that matters. All your opponents have seen is you betting and raising every hand. They doubt you, and they're very quickly going to get sick of your crap and start looking you up. This is NOT the time to get cute with QJs or 33 -- this is the time to play squeaky-clean poker as tight as you know how. Alternatively, if each of those five went to showdown and you displayed to the table your powerhouse winners, your folding equity will be HIGHER than usual, because people will begin to believe that you don't get involved with a hand unless you've got the goods. Be aware of this. [B]Recent history matters more than ancient history.[/B] Very few of your opponents actually have Poker Tracker. As a result, their image of you will be determined by their own personal observations. Most people have a relatively short memory, so concentrate most on your actions in the last two orbits. If your table image has fallen apart and your bluffs have gotten picked off several times in a row, tighten up and fold for the next two orbits -- in that short period of time you will rebuild most or all of your table image and you can then go back to doing your nasty deeds. Conversely, if you've been at the table for three hours playing a 12/8 game but you've gotten involved in 10 of the last 12 hands, people will think of you as a maniac, and play back at you with all sorts of crap. It's the recent history that counts, so remember how your last two orbits looked at the table. [B]Personal history matters more than table history.[/B] A player may not remember that you bluffed Seat 3 off his hand five times in a row, but he WILL remember that you bluffed HIM off his hand once an hour and a half ago. People have much longer memories for hands that involved them personally. If you stole a player's big blind three times in the last four orbits, he's going to know that, and he's going to play back at you with any reasonably strong hand. Your folding equity on a steal will be particularly low against HIM, but won't be low at all against the other players at the table. [B]Opponents will usually assume that your lines always mean the same thing.[/B] If you bet 3/4ths pot on a river scare card with the nut flush, then the next time you are in a pot against that opponent and the river comes with a three-flush (not yours), bet 3/4ths pot! Your folding equity will be tremendous. Alternatively, if the flush card DID help you, bet a DIFFERENT amount -- push all your chips in, or bet 1/2 pot, or do something else. When you want a call, don't do what you did the last time he saw you with the nuts. When you want a fold, do exactly what you did the last time he saw you with the nuts. People will remember these things. [/QUOTE]

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