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[QUOTE="Cheetah, post: 669668, member: 28209"]
I have on top of my to-do list research into optimal BR management. For now, I will just give an example to illustrate why it is not a good idea to play beyond BR management rules.
 
Let's compare the chances to lose 3 buy-ins at the higher limit(which is 2 times higher than our current limit) and the chance to lose that same amount at our current limit.
 
We will assume that the experiment is successful when we double-up the initial buy-ins or we fail when we lose it. I.e., at the lower level, we start with 6 buy-ins and stop when we lose it or when we are up to 12 buy-ins. Similarly, at the higher level we start with 3 buy-ins and stop at 6 or 0.
 
Further, let's assume that our profitability at the lower lever is 60% per session. I.e., we have 60% chance to double up our buy-in and 40% chance to lose it.
 
At the lower level, we start with 6 buy-ins (which is the same money as 3 buy-ins for the high level). We will double up 92% of the time and lose 8% of the time.
 
At the high lever, we start with 3 buy-ins. Let's assume for now that our profitability stays the same, i.e. 60%. We will now double up 77% of the time and lose 23% of the time!
 
Usually when we move up our profatibility goes down. So let's say we go from 60% to 55% profitability. Now, we will double up at the higher level 65% of the time and lose 45% of the time.
 
In summary:
 
lower limit: 60% profitability, we lose 8% of the time
higher limit: 60% profitability, we lose 23% of the time
higher limit: 55% profitability, we lose 45% of the time
 
This illustrates how rapidly the risk of loss increases.
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