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General Poker
Help me understand odds - hand example
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[QUOTE="Ronaldadio, post: 733372, member: 11310"] marcogd, I`ll try to add my bit. But first, check out my stats on official poker rankings . com. It is free to see what ppl have done over the past 120 days. I get ITM more than 20% of the MTT`s I play, so I guess I have an idea. I have found that in the early stages of MTT a lot of ppl will call with very little. So, looking at where we are in this hand. Your holding, 55, preflop, will not be a fav here. If u were heads up in this situation the best u would be is a slight fav as anyone holding 2 over cards is about 50/50. With 3 others in the pot, they will all probably have overcards at worst, or a bigger pocket pair i.e. 66+ [B][COLOR=red]FOLD[/COLOR][/B] So, now pot odds. The only way you can continue in this hand is if you hit your set on the flop, or a straight draw. The chances of that happening are around 7:1 - u r getting 4.5:1 to call. So, if you make this call ever time over time you will lose. [B][COLOR=red]FOLD[/COLOR][/B] [B][COLOR=#ff0000][/COLOR][/B] [COLOR=black]You are out of position. Out of 4 ppl u r 3rd to act, and the button has already raised showing strength, although it could simply be a button move. if u miss the flop, it is checked to you, u can`t raise, cause the button will reraise, probably. Position = [/COLOR][COLOR=red][B]FOLD[/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=black]I also disagree with the fact u need to build a big stack early on. It has been brought up on this forum time and time again, it is rare that the early chip leader wins a tourny. [/COLOR] [COLOR=black][/COLOR] [COLOR=black]It is my opinion, online definatly, that playing very tight aggressive in the first hour or so is the way forward. Stay around average stack. Then, when the blinds and pots are worth chancing, try then.[/COLOR] From what I can see of the hand history, the OP is wanting to know if he should have been in the pot to catch his set. The simple answer is no. The fact he would have hit a set is irrelevant. IMO, it would have been bad play that got lucky ;) [/QUOTE]
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