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Message: [QUOTE="VMVarga, post: 4757187, member: 354733"] You should specify the estimated number of hands, or hours played, rather than just one year of play. Some people play a smaller number of hands over a one year period, while others might play 10, 15, or 20 times the number of hands in the same year. Bad runs, or variance, just means that over a relatively short period of time and low number of hands played there are a significant number of hands where you are a big favorite to win but end up losing anyway. The more hands you play overall, the less this will affect you. However, on any given day, in any given session, you are at the mercy of the luck of the cards. If you flip a coin twice, sometimes it will be heads twice, or tails twice. But the more you flip the coin, the more the 50/50 odds will take over. Over the course of flipping the coin ten million times, you are going to get these odd stretches of all heads or all tails. The coin might land on heads 20 times in a row, even though the given odds are still 50/50. That 20 times in a row landing on heads is just like your long run of bad beats. You should only be losing a 4 to 1 bet once every four times, but sometimes you lose it four out of four times, or ten out of ten times. Those are outliers, not the norm. So just keep on playing through it and do not let it put you on tilt. That being said, if someone is playing almost every day and has been on a 12 month long slump, there is a good chance that there is more to it than just bad luck. Like others have said, it is certainly possible to have a 12 month long losing streak, but the probability of it happening is very low, just like the coin flip landing on heads 20 times example. You have to flip the coin several million times, or something absurd, just to see it land on heads 20 times in a row. Likewise, you would need to play a massive number of hands to ever see a run of bad cards lasting that long. [/QUOTE]

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