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[QUOTE="Mase31683, post: 1230328, member: 44869"]
To know your "True Winrate" really takes a lot of time.

Take your BB/100
Confidence Level
Standard Deviation BB/100
Number of Hands

With these you can find you "True Winrate Range" which is a normal distribution

Confidence Level just means how sure you can be that your true winrate is in the given distribution.

As an example, the person I saw describing this had:
Winrate: 6.5 BB/100
Confidence Level: 95%
Standard Deviation: 75 (You can find this in tracking software, he's HU so Std D is bigger)
# hands: 150,000

This gave the following numbers:

True Winrate range: 3.79 BB/100

Low Winrate 2.70
Hi Winrate 10.29

So there's a 95% chance that he wins anywhere from 2.7 to 10.3 BB/100.  That's still fairly wide and this is after 150,000 hands!

Now let's take a look at how the number of hands played affects these numbers.

Adjusting # hands to 10,000 yields a true winrate range of 14.7, which is basically saying, there's no idea in this how well you're playing.  You are just as likely to have a true winrate of -6.7BB/100 as +22.7BB/100 at this point.

Don't worry so much about what your BB/100 is.  Just focus on playing well, and making good decisions, because variance is going to be there for quite some time.
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