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[QUOTE="AJantwan, post: 4982555, member: 380965"]
Let's ignore rake and buy-in fees for a minute.

Suppose there was a fixed number of poker players. 50% would be above average and 50% would be below average. You might assume then that 50% would be winners.

But there's new players. Given that, it would be at least theoretically possible that more than half of all players were taking the money of the constantly renewing fish. But poker's not like that. There's no constantly new fish. Fish trickle in. So we're back to assuming that maybe around half of players might be profitable / above average.

But next, realize that a decent win rate of, say, 3BB/100 is only a 3% margin on hands played.

Now...add rake and fees.

Bye-bye 3BB/100. Even though you might be better than most players and win more than most do, you have to give some of that to the house.
 
So no, most players are not winners. I want to say that blackrain79 estimates that something like 70-85% of players are losing money. I imagine most of his data is from micro and small stakes, but I see no reason the large stakes would be any different.
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