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Message: [QUOTE="OzExorcist, post: 700395, member: 23910"] I was watching the coverage of the 2004 Main Event the other night, and Dan Harrington was talking about this exact concept. He figured he was one of the best, if not [I]the[/I] best, players going into the final table. But he only had 8% of the chips. So he figured that gave him at best a 16% chance of taking out the title. Take that back to the start of Day 1 - in a field of 6000-odd people, you've got 0.00016% of the chips to start with. So say you're a truly awesome player, better than absolutely everyone else in the field. Four times the tournament player Harrington is. You're still less than 0.01% to win. That makes luck more than 99% of the equation. Shrink the field size, and maybe that number comes down. The skilled players will do well more often than unskilled ones, but luck will still be the major deciding factor. [/QUOTE]