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Message: [QUOTE="myxiplx, post: 454400, member: 13927"] Hmm... ok, stuff to think about. Is it possible to move this thread to hand analysis? Welly, I hear what you're saying, but I was pretty confident with both of these hands. I'll try to explain my reasoning, but everyone, please point out anywhere you feel my thinking is flawed, or that I've missed something. What the history doesn't show was the timing, and it was that which made me confident of my reads. On the first hand I couldn't be sure of my opponents playstyle, but their stack size implied a solid player and I thought it doubtful they would raise $5 without a solid hand. With that in mind, the size of the bet after the flop looked to me very much like an overpair or a semi-bluff at the pot with overcards. There was an outside danger of trips but I thought the chance was slim. My raise had two purposes: to find out if they had trips, and hopefully to draw them all in. I'd have expected trips to think much longer before re-raising (they have to decide whether I'm more likely to call all in, or call another bet on turn & river), whereas an overpair would be quite happy to take down the pot right there. His quick push made me very confident I had him beat. Had he thought before his raise I'd have folded there & then. On the 2nd you say I have negative ev. Well, I can't argue that my plays were on the loose side right through the hand, but I made a decision at the start to play this flush for a big pot if possible. Bluepitbull2 is in the hand, and already I've seen him make some loose calls right down to the river. My aim was to drive up the value, mis-represent my hand and hope to score a big payout. Personally I think calling here is horrible, it just doesn't give me the implied odds if I do hit a flush, to me it feels like a -ev play. My initial re-raise was a combination of being ideally placed to thin the field (and eliminate other people chasing a flush), and an attempt to build the pot. I'd have been happy to win the hand here but expected to get a caller. When I got two callers I couldn't have been happier, especially with bluepitbull2 as one of them. Now at this point I'd much rather see the flush on the turn, I've a 1 in 4 chance of hitting it, and I'm confident that with one caller that my implied odds if it hits are good enough to justify this initial bet. When I missed on the turn, I was potentially laying the hand down, but I was hoping my earlier raise may make the others more cautious. Rosh125's $25 bet nearly won the hand for them here, but when blupitbull called after thinking for a while the odds were close enough for me to call too. Again, I'm not getting the exact odds here, but I'm confident that at least one of these will call on the river if I hit the flush. They've both shown strength throughout, and neither should put me on the flush right now. Welly, is this where I'm getting 19.6 at 22.6%? If it is, then my instinctive feel for the odds was closer than I thought. I felt that I had very close to the right odds to chase regardless, and I was very confident of getting a bet on the river, and my river bet is going to be at least as high as the turn bet, probably 50% larger. As it turned out, against these opponents on the river I quickly pushed all in to make it look like I was attempting to steal the pot. As expected Rosh125 didn't believe I had the flush & quickly called. Yes, there was a bit of luck in this hand, and I could have lost a fair bit, but to get to the turn I'm only risking $12, and it's still only $37 by the river. With 3 players in the hand my potential payout was huge, and the $237 win easily justifies chasing the flush. Against better players this probably won't work, but at the moment I'm finding I can draw people in, and while that continues to work I can't see my changing my style. Even if this only works 50% of the time, the implied odds from occasionally having this tactic work pay off the few times it doesn't... (In the back of my mind are the odds of playing a particular strategy in the long term, not just the specific odds for a single hand). Sorry for the monster of a post, I hope that explains my thinking (and I do hope I don't look completely insane). Comments and criticism greatfully received. Myx [/QUOTE]

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