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Message: [QUOTE="StormRaven, post: 1137132, member: 53047"] I will be going to the casino tomorrow night and running into a regular that I had a huge debate with last week. I know this guy (Dave) and he will greet me with some smart-ass remark about our debate last week. Win or lose an argument, he is stubborn to his beliefs. So I ask you all, what is your view/opinion on the debate we had: *Observation or Superstition? Overview: [COLOR=indigo]Me[/COLOR]: Have you noticed tonight how lucky seat 8 is running on our table tonight? (this is a 1/2 nl cash table). [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] Poker is about independent actions, not one has anything to do with a prior action. Seat 8 isn't running lucky, the players in that seat are having short term luck. [COLOR=indigo]Me: [/COLOR][COLOR=black]I completely agree about the independent actions. However, I also notice that at times it does appear that a particular seat is getting dealt more premium hands and having their hands connect with the board. I'm not saying this happens all the time, but I do believe this happens from time to time, short term.[/COLOR] [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] People sometimes run good or bad, it makes no difference what seat they are in, it will all equal out in the long term. You are just being superstitious. [COLOR=indigo]Me:[/COLOR] Again I agree with you, it will equal out in the long term. However, I do believe in short term patterns, don't you? I notice patterns and tonight the pattern seems to be that seat 8 is getting dealt more AA, KK, QQ more than any other seat AND having those hands stand up. [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] No. Every action is independent and so is every hand of the next. You are speaking of superstition. You are saying no matter who jumps in seat 8 at table 12 they will get good cards and connect with the board. [COLOR=indigo]Me:[/COLOR][COLOR=black] I am saying that once in awhile, for whatever reason that certain patterns arise. Tomorrow night I will not request seat 8 at table 12 because tonight I've watched 3 seperate people sit down, show huge ppr's and huge premium hands connecting with the board and each of those 3 different people leave with more than double the money they sat down with. And I am not saying this happens often. I am saying that tonight, 3 people have shown monsters in that seat, they have all stupidly left the seat, although they each more than doubled their money.[/COLOR] [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] I still think that is superstitious. The first two players were horrible players, they got lucky. I bet if they were to move to another table or another seat that their luck would continue for tonight. It makes no difference what seat they are in or which table for that matter. Over the long run those two players will lose money. The last player is good, that is why he is winning. [COLOR=indigo]Me:[/COLOR] I agree with you that sometimes people are just running good, so no matter where they are at they will continue to run good for that short term. However, I see a pattern of monster hands - and they are connecting with the board - and holding up. This is a good observation, not a superstition. Superstition would be Chelsea, she always requests seat 9 because she feels that is a lucky seat for her. That is superstition. [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] Not really, if Chelsea feels that seat 9 is lucky for her and it gives her confidence to play better then it is a smart move, not superstition. [COLOR=indigo]Me:[/COLOR] Okay good point. But I will bet you that if I move into seat 8 that I will get premium hands for tonight, have them hold up and leave with more than double my money. [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] That's not fair either, it's the same as Chelsea, if you believe that will do better in seat 8 then you will play better and therefore win more money. [COLOR=indigo]Me:[/COLOR] Okay, again, good point. How about this? You go and pick out one of the players at a different table that is running bad. Anyone you choose, but they have to be down. I will arrange a seat change with the guy in seat 8 for the player you pick and explain to Bryan (poker room supervisor) what we are doing. How is $50 for a side bet? [COLOR=red]Dave:[/COLOR] You have a deal. This is just superstition. **While I recognize that Dave had some valid points to make, I also stand by my original statements that at times, there are short term patterns that a good and observant poker player should take advantage of. I also believe this applys to cards. If you notice that at a certain table, for whatever reason, two 9's keep hitting the board that you should see a cheap flop with any hand that has a 9 in it. Or if you notice that for whatever reason 3 clubs keep hitting the board a good deal more than any other suit you should adjust accordingly. ***So do you believe this is good observation or just superstition? Who do you think won the bet? I really am curious how people perceive this. Thanks, Storm [/QUOTE]

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