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[QUOTE="ChuckTs, post: 1137162, member: 467"]
What do you mean 'there are patterns'?  That poker consists of some preset run of cards that everyone goes on every once in a while, and if you recognize this then you can predict they're most likely going to keep going on that run for X hands?

This is the type of thinking that is extremely destructive and is the same thing any smart poker player will tell you is 'flawed'.

Take roulette for example.  They always advertise the fact that red or black has or hasn't hit for X spins in a row trying to get people to simply play their game because their game makes money in the long run.  People pick red if black's been on a run (or vice versa), and they lose EV because roulette is -EV for the player, and +EV for the casino.

It's a fallacy - runs don't exist.  The only thing that exists in this sense is the fact that the player who's getting the pretty side of the short term variance is often going to have some kind of boost in confidence, and will often play better because of it.

Whether or not he picks up more big hands in the next while is completely up to variance, and is irrelevant.  That's why the result of your bet doesn't matter, and why I'm surprised your friend, who seems to be thinking correctly to me, took the bet (assuming you're making the bet based on whether or not the next player to sit there will pick up a run of cards).
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