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Message: [QUOTE="zachvac, post: 1137187, member: 26306"] Dave's right, although I think he's over-emphasizing the confidence issue. I would have taken the first bet (unless you're really good and typically more than double your money just through pure skill). Right so far. Damn was going so well, this is false. The patterns are in the past, to take advantage of them you have to predict the future. Nope, this is just superstition. In fact if a 9 is more likely to hit in any given hand, it means the deck has been rigged. It is possible that in the past more 9's have come up, but the probability of each 9 being any card better damn well be 1/52 or else the deck is rigged. Nope. The observations you make of patterns is perfectly legitimate, but it's in the past. You are then saying you should use past observations to alter your play in the future. You cannot predict the future based on the past. How about this bet? We'll flip a coin, every time it comes up 3 of one (heads or tails), you bet on that side. If you win I'll give you $4 and if I win you give me $5, would you take this bet? So basically we flip and say after a bit it comes up 3 tails in a row. Now you get to bet on tails. Would you take this bet? Hopefully not, and it basically shows how although poker is a more complex game it still holds the principle that every action, every hand, every card that comes into your hand or onto the board is an independent event that has no knowledge of what has happened in the past. If the last 10 flops have been all clubs, the odds of the next flop containing a club is still exactly the same as before, given that the deck is not rigged. [/QUOTE]

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