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General Poker
It's Good To Be The House
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[QUOTE="zachvac, post: 706241, member: 26306"] I'm sorry, but the point of a house edge is just that, a house edge. If you continually make 48%-to-win bets, you can't possibly do it profitably (unless you can do it infinitely. No matter how it's set up, you will most likely win $1 before you hit the cap, but your loss will be worse than your wins in the long term. Basically I'm saying that if the min bet is $1, you stand to win $1 every time. So say the cap is $1,024 (trust me on this, makes it easier). The amount bet on the nth roll is 2^(n-1) in this example ($1, $2, $4, $8, ect.). It will take 11 straight losses to hit the cap. So the odds of losing 11 in a row is 0.52^11 = 1 in 1330. So 1329 times in 1330 we win a buck, that's $1329. But that 1 in 1330, we lose 1024+512+256+128+64+32+16+8+4+2+1 = $2047. We lost $718 over the 1330 rolls and the ev for this game is -$0.54. That's right, although we win $1 the heavy majority of the time, we are actually losing 54 cents every time we try this scheme. Still sound like a good idea? Try the math with a $1,000,000 limit. Trust me, it works the same way. There may be like a 1 in a million chance of busting, but when the bust costs you a trillion and the win nets you $1, it's a bad bet. This scheme is like a reverse lottery, although the odds are still on the side of the house, even though the roles are reversed (we're wagering a ton of money to win only a bit). [/QUOTE]
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