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Message: [QUOTE="feitr, post: 1060418, member: 34106"] Yea i completely agree. I used to think it was a fairly significant aspect of total luck, but i'd probably put it somewhere around 25% maybe. You have to consider there are alot of "all in EV"-like pots where pretty deciding action is made on earlier streets, then villain turns or rivers a 1:4 hand, etc. that you can't exactly pinpoint since their range is alot wider. So often you'll be getting it in dead on the river, even tho range analysis wise you are getting your money in good. Also things like how often you are hitting your draws, true coolers, etc. etc. Last while i've been running quite a bit over EV, but overall i really do not feel i am running well at all (ofc i could be delusional). It is absolutely crazy how often i have been getting it in almost dead with things like an overpair in a 3B pot (in last 2 days have had 2 villains flop a straight in 3B pot 100bbs deep with 96s and 87o when i had QQ+), flush over flush, 2 pair vs straight, flopped bottom end of a straight vs top, etc. And the fact is that in a typical session, so few of your pots are actually true "all in" pots anyways, when compared to the rest. And so often the % to win when the money goes in is not a true reflection of the % when it comes to ranges. Since you tend to get money in on things like 2 pair vs set, TPTK/overpair vs set/2 pair, etc. in reality you are drawing close to dead, but it probably isn't that -EV a decision (and is often very +EV, coz villain is just at the top of their range). And in HU there is alot more "luck" involved with other factors as well imo - like does a guy auto leave after sucking out?, and how incredibly difficult it is to play when somebody is running hot coz their frequencies suggest they are bluffing more than they are when in reality they are just hitting the deck, etc. But yea, tons of my "run hot" sessions have had me quite a bit below EV, but i still ran super good, whereas i've had some terrible sessions when absolutely nothing worked but i'm actually running really good in all in pots (just terrible in everything else). Ultimately i just think the interaction of all the aspects of short term luck in poker make it just way too hard to try to accurately quantify, so why bother. He had something worse ;) [/QUOTE]

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