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Message: [QUOTE="zachvac, post: 1202038, member: 26306"] ok so let's make it real simple and say that no matter what he checks back river. Then we can ignore stuff like information and having to deal with getting bluffed off best hand/calling with worse. So there's a linear spectrum of hands he has now with certain value since it's the river with no cards to come. At some point on that spectrum is the point at which he will call a river bet. Also at some point on that spectrum is our hand. If our hand is at the dividing call/fold point for his hand you are right we should check because we don't fold out worse or get a call from better. If we have complete air we should compare given the pot odds of our bluff whether enough of his range is a fold to make the bluff profitable. Similarly if our hand is somewhere in between the set of hands we need to compare is out of the hands better than ours, does he fold enough to make it worth the bluff. So onto the actual hand. First off I had it set up so my river bet is about 1/2 pot. This is enough to have some FE imo and also a good size to have a really good price on the bluff. As long as he folds 33% of the time or more, we are showing a profit. So we can ignore the hands that are worse than ours, because whether we bet or check we pick up the pot. I expect him to 4-bet AA/KK/AK like 99% of the time. My estimate of his calling range is basically any kings, he probably flats KQ/maybe KJ to the 3-bet. I also think he flats a lot of mid-high pairs, pairs that he thinks are ahead of my 3-bet range but not good enough to 4-bet and don't want to turn them into a bluff against my weak range. Those hands are always calling flop/turn. Basically I expect like 90% of his overall range here to fold. Therefore it really doesn't matter the value of our hand. I think there are at least half as many hands in his range that are better than mine and fold as there are that call the shove, therefore it is a profitable bluff imo. You kind of have a point with showdown value but just checking "because we have showdown value" really isn't that great of logic. We need to consider whether we can profitably bluff and showdown value is not a static yes or no question. I'm pretty low down on the showdown value spectrum and I think there are enough better hands that fold to turn it into a bluff. This time he had a hand that basically made my options neutral, but I do believe that he has at least half as many hands that beat me that fold as he does that beat me and call. And that's what we should be considering. edit: also lol at huckfelmuth [/QUOTE]

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