know when we have beaten a level?

darkgonz · Aug 3, 2020

How to know when we have beaten a level?

Martin Carreira · Aug 3, 2020

Once we exceed 100 big blinds and we can control the losses so that we continue to have cash in case of losing the money we were betting and not losing everything.

pokerdebit · Aug 3, 2020

You monitor your blinds
Once you have above 50 blinds, you should be okk

perrypip · Aug 3, 2020

The mathematically correct way is to collect stats on your play, calculate average win rate, standard deviation and standard error etc. From that you can put a statistical confidence interval on whatever your true win rate is.

To make a long story short it can take about 100,000 or so hands to be 95% sure you're a winner, more if you are close to a break even player and less if you are a strong winner. Or maybe about 2000 SNG's. Basically its alot, like a 1000 hours of play.

If you don't have the patience you can use a bankroll management strategy, i.e. go up when your bankroll goes up enough to justify playing at higher levels. That way you get practise in a tougher game too. If you really are able to win at a higher level why spend a 1000 hours using stats to show you beat a lower level, right? Just be prepared for downswings don't bankrupt yourself getting over confident.

NWPatriot · Aug 3, 2020

I think bankroll management is the answer. If you target 50 buyins for a tournament, then that is the best way to tell you what level you should be playing. If cash game, then numbers are different, but the idea is the same. You should 'earn' your way up the ladder.

perrypip said:
The mathematically correct way is to collect stats on your play, calculate average win rate....

To make a long story short it can take about 100,000 or so hands to be 95% sure you're a winner, more if you are close to a break even player and less if you are a strong winner. Or maybe about 2000 SNG's. Basically its alot, like a 1000 hours of play...

100,000 online hands at 75 hands an hour is 1500 hrs of play which is about 30 hrs a week for a year. 2000 SNG's is 5.5 per day for a year. This sounds like a lot to me. And in the end, simply playing a lot of poker for one year tells us very little. You are right that our stats will have meaning after this amount of time.

ROI (return on investment) solves both problems. If we do not have a +ROI, we are not increasing our bankroll so we should not be moving up. All the stats in the world end up in the our ROI result. Stats can tell help us determine where we may need to improve, but ROI is key.

Just one mans opinion of course.

Good luck and God bless.

caracaski220 · Aug 3, 2020

caracaski220

You can tell, because the oponents become easy for you relatively. However watch out going up. I know pros who are unbeatable at 3-6 go up to 5.10 and not be able to win. Some players dont have the mindset to play at a higher level even though they are great poker players. For instance the pro who taught me has trouble at higher levels,because he sweats the action. I do better than him at those levels because I dont worry about the amounts. I just play the chips, Though I admit , he is still a much better poker player than me.

perrypip · Aug 3, 2020

NWPatriot said:
ROI (return on investment) solves both problems. If we do not have a +ROI, we are not increasing our bankroll so we should not be moving up. All the stats in the world end up in the our ROI result. Stats can tell help us determine where we may need to improve, but ROI is key.

If I understand it correctly, the OP was asking for how long does one need to play for ROI to be significant. If I play 10 sit and goes or 10 hours of cash table ROI means nothing. You have to have a big enough sample size or it has no meaning.

100,000 online hands at 75 hands an hour is 1500 hrs of play which is about 30 hrs a week for a year. 2000 SNG's is 5.5 per day for a year. This sounds like a lot to me. And in the end, simply playing a lot of poker for one year tells us very little. You are right that our stats will have meaning after this amount of time.

If you play a single table. Many players multi table.

And look at the bankroll approach. A conservative bankroll for cash table is 100 buy ins, which is 10,000BB. In order to move up to twice the stakes you need to grow that to 200 buy ins at the level you are playing now. If you are making 10BB/100 that's 100,000 hands. Same as above. Even if you keep say a 25 buy in approach that's 25,000 hands.

Just one mans opinion of course.

Good luck and God bless.

No problem. So is mine. Not trying to pick at you just clarifying what I'm saying.

GGthiagoXD · Aug 3, 2020

Martin. I had never heard that. I liked it, I’m resuming BRM is my priority now as I’m going to take poker seriously looking to raise it to real levels for real results.

Martin Carreira said:
Once we exceed 100 big blinds and we can control the losses so that we continue to have cash in case of losing the money we were betting and not losing everything.

So for those who are a beginner and want to level up, will they just go up comfortable with a big bench for each level?

perrypip said:
The mathematically correct way is to collect stats on your play, calculate average win rate, standard deviation and standard error etc. From that you can put a statistical confidence interval on whatever your true win rate is.

To make a long story short it can take about 100,000 or so hands to be 95% sure you're a winner, more if you are close to a break even player and less if you are a strong winner. Or maybe about 2000 SNG's. Basically its alot, like a 1000 hours of play.

If you don't have the patience you can use a bankroll management strategy, i.e. go up when your bankroll goes up enough to justify playing at higher levels. That way you get practise in a tougher game too. If you really are able to win at a higher level why spend a 1000 hours using stats to show you beat a lower level, right? Just be prepared for downswings don't bankrupt yourself getting over confident.

NWPatriot said:
I think bankroll management is the answer. If you target 50 buyins for a tournament, then that is the best way to tell you what level you should be playing. If cash game, then numbers are different, but the idea is the same. You should 'earn' your way up the ladder.

100,000 online hands at 75 hands an hour is 1500 hrs of play which is about 30 hrs a week for a year. 2000 SNG's is 5.5 per day for a year. This sounds like a lot to me. And in the end, simply playing a lot of poker for one year tells us very little. You are right that our stats will have meaning after this amount of time.

ROI (return on investment) solves both problems. If we do not have a +ROI, we are not increasing our bankroll so we should not be moving up. All the stats in the world end up in the our ROI result. Stats can tell help us determine where we may need to improve, but ROI is key.

Just one mans opinion of course.

Good luck and God bless.

When a player suffers low on the bank is it because he played poorly or is it just the variance? anyway the bank will suffer the decline so it will not be able to rise to the right level?

Wow!!

caracaski220 said:
You can tell, because the oponents become easy for you relatively. However watch out going up. I know pros who are unbeatable at 3-6 go up to 5.10 and not be able to win. Some players dont have the mindset to play at a higher level even though they are great poker players. For instance the pro who taught me has trouble at higher levels,because he sweats the action. I do better than him at those levels because I dont worry about the amounts. I just play the chips, Though I admit , he is still a much better poker player than me.

wow surprising the way you approached the subject I learned a lot, within the advanced view that clarified on how to raise the bank. I will go analyzing and taking the correct paths the brigade for you to exist !! lol

anadrijav · Aug 19, 2020

If you are a novice player, the best way to know your progress is to improve your freeroll spots.

nellorossi83 · Aug 19, 2020

When you dont need to ask it in a forum.. kkk

Thiagon · Aug 19, 2020

I believe I went up a notch in poker when I started to get itm frequently.
From the moment we are able to easily reach the final parts of the tournaments, we can say that we have climbed a step.

hanski4 · Aug 20, 2020

personaly i think 100 bigs

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know when we have beaten a level?

darkgonz

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Martin Carreira

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pokerdebit

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perrypip

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NWPatriot

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perrypip

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GGthiagoXD

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