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Message: [QUOTE="c0rnBr34d, post: 5374140, member: 394557"] Both of these are over-stated in my opinion. I agree that you do not have to be lucky to consistently win but luck or perhaps more specifically variance is a HUGE part of the game. Even pro crushers who earn 10+ BB / hr have discussed 150 hour break even spans, ridiculous coolers in huge pots that happen so infrequently they can crush your win rate, and all other manner of downswings that hit some players much harder than others. This is even further magnified for tournament players. That one AA vs KK hand in a tournament where you hit your K and win could be the difference between making the final table or not. In an event like the WSOP main event that could literally make or break your career because you got lucky at the right time (instead of blowing half your roll on a tournament you couldn't really afford, getting frustrated at the grind, missing the money bubble and deciding to dedicate more time to something else you hit your draw make the final table and 7 figures and continue to work on your game. Either way you were a winning player but in one case you got lucky and re-focused and stayed with it). If you play long enough (2k hours live or 100k hands online or whatever) then you SHOULD work your way back towards the middle of your expected win rate but the difference between running bad and running good is HUGE. For a more personal example, last year I only logged 250 ish hours but my win rate was over 15 BB / hr. This year over 365 hour I'm at like 4.5 BB / hr so far. That's a HUGE difference. Am I really playing well enough to make 15 BB / hr? Probably not. Am I really playing at the level of the average 4.5 BB / hr player or am I running bad? Realistically the answer is usually in the middle somewhere but just the fact that the ranges are so wide proves how huge it is to be lucky or run good in my opinion. [/QUOTE]

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