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Message: [QUOTE="tauri103, post: 5630263, member: 208371"] he role of luck in poker is an eternal debate. Let us be clear right away, the more we are good, the more the share of luck decreases. at the start of the game a beginner will be more likely to make bad decisions and will be more exposed to luck. he will pay regardless of odds and touch his card when a reg has folded. luck intervenes in this game but only in the short term. In the long run, the player who relies heavily on his luck will see much of his chips and his bankroll lose. for my part I prefer to play by considering the following elements. probabilities, calculating odds and outs, reading tells, game psychology and experience. to quote Doyle Brunson Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. on the other hand at the end of the game when the blinds really increase and your stack is limited. you are much more vulnerable to variance. in this context I will cite the paradox of heads or tails. In theory, you have exactly a 50% luck of falling on a pile and a 50% luck of falling on a coin. However, it is extremely unlikely that you will get alternately heads then heads then heads in your draws. Let us calculate for example the probability of obtaining the alternative result heads / heads / heads after 3 throws. You throw the coin: 1 in 2 luck of falling on the pile You raise it: 1 in 2 luck of falling on face You raise it: 1 in 2 luck of falling on the pile So you only have a 1 in 8 luck of seeing this sequence happen. We can thus quantify the luck of falling alternately on a pile then on the face: ½ power n, n being the number of times you throw the coin. The luck of getting a perfect set of flips / flip flops / flop decrease exponentially depending on the number of throws in the coin. In poker, your AK has a 50% luck of defeating your opponent's pair of 33. We call these coin flips. precisely, tossing coins in the air with heads or tails. Theoretically, 50% of the time you hit heads and 50% of the time on heads. But concretely, you will know lucky cycles of the pile / pile / pile type 3 coinflips won and other unlucky cycles like face / face / face 3 coinflips lost. Having said that in practice, if you throw the coin in the air an infinite number of times, you will get very very close to 50% stack and 50% total face. [/QUOTE]

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