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Message: [QUOTE="c0rnBr34d, post: 5264641, member: 394557"] I couldn't disagree with this any more. Odds to flop a set given you hold a pocket pair are indeed 11.8% or about 7.5 to 1. I'm not sure what you are trying to say. As a player you are correct that you have no control of your hole cards, your opponents cards, or the community cards. But given what you can observe, you can make decisions that have a mathematically measured expected value. Obviously as a game of incomplete information and deception these decisions will not be 100% accurate this is what people are referring to as skill. Recognizing when and how much to bet, when to call, when to fold, those are the things you do have control over. Weaponizing your aggression or disguising your strength based on your observations and incomplete information is what poker is all about. Some players are clearly better at this than others. The fact that you can make the correct decision and still lose is why the game still exists. If the best players had no chance of losing then the weaker players would give up much faster. But over thousands of hands if one player consistently makes better decisions than another player there is no amount of luck that will save them from eventually losing. To use the pair over pair example in this context consider this. In the AA vs 33 scenario the AA is roughly an 80% favorite. That means for every 4 times you win you will lose once on average. The fact that you go all in and get called and lose one time doesn't really mean much. Repeat that experiment 1,000 times though and tell me how many times the AA lost. Eventually the player with the AA will start to converge around an 80% win rate. The more times you repeat the scenario the less likely the 33 can continue to get lucky and win. If you're talking about two players of exactly equal skill level then maybe the outcome is random. But that's not what this thread is about. [/QUOTE]

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