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[QUOTE="Natiq 90, post: 7291197, member: 460031"]
I firmly believe that skill always prevails in the long run — but the key word here is 'long run.'
In the short term, luck can make a losing player look like a genius and a great player look like a fish. That's what makes poker so frustrating and so fascinating at the same time.
As for how many hands it takes for skill to overcome luck — most serious studies suggest that in No-Limit Hold'em, you need somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 hands to see your true win rate emerge with any statistical confidence. In tournaments it's even harder to measure, because the variance is much higher than in cash games.
Personally, I think the real sign of a skilled player isn't just their results — it's how they react when luck goes against them. Anyone can play well when they're running hot. The true test is making correct decisions when the cards are cold and the beats are bad.
That's why I focus on my decision-making process, not the outcome of any single session or tournament.
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