Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="maltz, post: 625147, member: 26654"] This is my true story not very long ago. My hole cards were Kd 4d in SB. By turn, there were three diamonds on board. Happy with my K-high flush, I raised 1/2 pot and some other guy reraised all in all of a sudden. I called to see his Ad Qd... DOH! (Good it is not real money.) Case K-High: King-high flush runs into Ace-high flush There are at least 3 suited cards on the board. Maybe 4, maybe 5. We have to list them all. - 3 suited cards on board (no Ace): You hold 2. There are 7 non-Ace cards left. Therefore, there are 7 kinds of A-high flush out there. Total possibility of hole cards = 1225 In a field of 9 opponent, none of them has A-high flush: (1-7/1225)^9 = 0.9497 Therefore, chance of bumping into A-high flush = 1-0.9497 = 0.0503 (1 in 20) To summarize: (3/4/5 flush cards on board) 9 opponents: 1 in 20/23/28 7 opponents: 1 in 25/30/35 <-- This is what happened to me! 5 opponents: 1 in 35/41/49 3 opponents: 1 in 59/68/82 1 opponent: 1 in 175/204/245 Case Q-High: Queen-high flush runs into King-high flush or above - 3 suited cards on board (no Ace or King, if there is any then go back to above example) You hold 2. There are 7 A-high flush, 6 K-high flush: 1-((1-13/1225)^9 = 0.0916 (1 in 11) To summarize: (3/4/5 flush cards on board) 9 opponents: 1 in 11/13/16 7 opponents: 1 in 14/16/20 5 opponents: 1 in 19/23/28 3 opponents: 1 in 32/37/46 1 opponent: 1 in 94/111/136 Case J-High: Jack-high flush runs into Queen-high flush or above - 3 suited cards on board (no Ace, King or Queen. If there is any go back to above example) You hold 2. There are 7 A-high flush, 6 K-high flush, 5 Q-high flush: 1-((1-18/1225)^9 = 0.124 (1 in 8.0) To summarize: (3/4/5 flush cards on board) 9 opponents: 1 in 8.0/9.5/12 7 opponents: 1 in 10/12/15 5 opponents: 1 in 14/17/21 3 opponents: 1 in 23/28/34 1 opponent: 1 in 68/82/102 Case T-high: Ten-high flush runs into Jack-high flush or above Note: Still, if there is one of A,K,Q or J on board, go back to the previous case. If there are two, go back two levels, etc. To summarize: (assume 3 flush cards on board) 9 opponents: 1 in 6.6 7 opponents: 1 in 8.4 5 opponents: 1 in 12 3 opponents: 1 in 19 1 opponent: 1 in 56 Case 9-high: 9-high flush runs into Ten-high flush or above To summarize: (assume 3 flush cards on board) 9 opponents: 1 in 5.9 7 opponents: 1 in 7.4 5 opponents: 1 in 10 3 opponents: 1 in 17 1 opponent: 1 in 49 As you can see, your chance of being a flush underdog becomes quite significant when your own flush isn't very good, while against a large table. If you have an 8-high flush, chances are that about 1 in 8 times you are entitled to lose all your chips. A few days earlier, in one of our 4-player home games, a guy had 56 flush. There were 2 over-cards on board (so he has an equivalent 8-high flush). His chance of doom was 1-((1-27/1225)^3, about 1 in 15. Indeed, he ran into an K-high flush and lost his third buy-in! [/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us