Pairs v Over cards

telboy · Feb 7, 2013

I know pairs have a small advantage on over cards in a race where you see all 5 cards.
While playing sngs I have kept check on the times that pairs & over cards win a race.
Out of 113 races the pairs won 46 times & over pairs won 67 times

Lucothefish · Feb 7, 2013

telboy said:
I know pairs have a small advantage on over cards in a race where you see all 5 cards.
While playing sngs I have kept check on the times that pairs & over cards win a race.
Out of 113 races the pairs won 46 times & over pairs won 67 times

If I tossed a coin 114 times would you complain the coin was fixed if I didn't get exactly 57 heads?

Your sample size is nowhere near the point where outcome will match expectation.

bezobrazny · Feb 7, 2013

telboy said:
I know pairs have a small advantage on over cards in a race where you see all 5 cards.
While playing sngs I have kept check on the times that pairs & over cards win a race.
Out of 113 races the pairs won 46 times & over pairs won 67 times

Those numbers are ok I believe. You won't get 50:50 result in most of the time when is coin flip situation but the result should be always close. Try to play with over pair against lower connectors and you 'll get a better result I can promise you.

telboy · Feb 7, 2013

I thought pairs would win more than over cards

micromachine · Feb 7, 2013

telboy said:
I thought pairs would win more than over cards

They will if you have a bigger sample size

DaveE · Feb 7, 2013

Your sample size is too small. Pairs will have a small advantage in the long term.

IntenseHeat · Feb 7, 2013

I figured the results would be close to 50/50. I've always assumed that's why they call it a coin flip. I usually prefer to have the overcards in a coin flip situation. I seem to win more with them. Or maybe it's just that I seem to have the two overcards more often than not. Since it's extremely rare for me to be shoving weak pairs, it's more likely that I will have called another players all-in with A-K or A-Q.

left52side · Feb 7, 2013

This game as mentioned before is over long term effect.
1000's and 1000's of hands go into effect.
I can remember several sessions where I couldnt get a pair to hold up in a race.
Although I remember several sessions where I was glad I alled with my a/k.
Just look at it over say 2,500 hands or more.

LuckyBundy13 · Feb 9, 2013

You should download poker stove and run the numbers yourself. Bing it, then bink it!

imboosted · Feb 10, 2013

your sample size is way to small...

DeadlyAim · Feb 16, 2013

Good point

Your right that is general rule. The higher the pair the better.

I have a limit 10s-Js are very good hands not locks, Qs-Ks almost a win, As closest lock u got pre-flop duh.

7s-9s are ok hands. 6s and lower good luck with dat.

Qs+ I bet like Aces but with one exception. Ks and Qs try never go allin pre-flop. Usually an A-5/K is out there so I see I try to scare them out or wait to see no over pair A/K flop then I bet like As.

Js-10s suicide Jacks mathematically are great but usually A10, KJ, Q9 hands call if your not carefull and if 2+ of those call u ur in trouble. A on the flop is a death sentence.

The only time this math adds up is if u isolate and go heads up and with Qs-As usually up for it and semi-aggressive on Js-10s. Anything lower if Im short stack or got a read might try an isolation pre-flop. If you don't get an isolation on 4s ur kinda screwed.

Its how u bet them more than the math... bad betting can ruin the best of cards.

dragonflyamb · Feb 18, 2013

I think you need a bigger sample size to make a comparison. Thinking of it logically, a pair is ahead of 2 overs to start. The two overs, however have several outs which could include straights and flushes, but they have to hit to beat the pair.

sam1chips · Feb 18, 2013

dragonflyamb said:
I think you need a bigger sample size to make a comparison. Thinking of it logically, a pair is ahead of 2 overs to start. The two overs, however have several outs which could include straights and flushes, but they have to hit to beat the pair.

+1. two high suited connectors (KQ of diamonds, for example) have a ton of potential ways to win vs a low pair.

The OP statistics won't be relevant until the # of cases reaches the thousands.

...It is also worth noting that AcKc suited is a slight favorite against 2d2h. For what it's worth

aa88wildbill · Feb 18, 2013

It depends on where you are playing, but some players watched the random generators and can get a good read on what cards to play.

duggs · Feb 18, 2013

aa88wildbill said:
It depends on where you are playing, but some players watched the random generators and can get a good read on what cards to play.

no?

Matt Vaughan · Feb 19, 2013

DeadlyAim said:
Your right that is general rule. The higher the pair the better.

I have a limit 10s-Js are very good hands not locks, Qs-Ks almost a win, As closest lock u got pre-flop duh.

7s-9s are ok hands. 6s and lower good luck with dat.

Qs+ I bet like Aces but with one exception. Ks and Qs try never go allin pre-flop. Usually an A-5/K is out there so I see I try to scare them out or wait to see no over pair A/K flop then I bet like As.

Js-10s suicide Jacks mathematically are great but usually A10, KJ, Q9 hands call if your not carefull and if 2+ of those call u ur in trouble. A on the flop is a death sentence.

The only time this math adds up is if u isolate and go heads up and with Qs-As usually up for it and semi-aggressive on Js-10s. Anything lower if Im short stack or got a read might try an isolation pre-flop. If you don't get an isolation on 4s ur kinda screwed.

Its how u bet them more than the math... bad betting can ruin the best of cards.

aa88wildbill said:
It depends on where you are playing, but some players watched the random generators and can get a good read on what cards to play.

Solid posts itt...

The standard deviation on that sample size is about 10.6, and your number of overpairs holding up will only be within one standard deviation of the mean about 68% of the time.

For the sake of argument let's say the mean is 1/2 of the "coin flip" situations, so 56.5.

68% of the time, the outcome will be within one standard deviation, or 45.9 < # of times pairs hold up < 67.1

So you'll note that the deviation of your sample from the mean isn't unexpected.

zingbust · Feb 19, 2013

I used to think these were coin flips because I swear I looked it up and in most cases, if the pair isn't too low, the overcards were only a slight underdog, like 48% - 52% or even 49% - 51%...then recently I looked it up again and the pair actually has a huge edge over unsuited overcards, more like 55% - 45%....I guess they found a flaw in the arithmetic or something and fixed it on the cardplayer odds calculator....either that or my memory is completely off....sheesh, all these years I've been overplaying AK and underplaying pairs all because of this miscalculation.

But it's still true that a very low pair like deuces or treys is a slight underdog to a hand like J 10 suited,.

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Pairs v Over cards

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