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Message: [QUOTE="Matt Vaughan, post: 2325333, member: 34747"] A good point about hand sample, but irrelevant in this case I think. (Ok, not irrelevant, but shouldn't change our decision in this spot.) Let's say that, for the sake of argument, villain is actually a 15/10 in spite of his 9/4 stats over 72 hands (pretty unlikely, but definitely possible - though I wouldn't go much beyond that). His opening range of ~10% probably looks something like: 66+/AT+/KQ The reason I think this hand is a pretty straightforward (if not easy to actually make) fold is that villain takes such an extreme line. In a way his line is semi-polarizing, because the action dictates that he's either got marginal SDV, or an absolute monster after the flop and turn play. Notice that his hands still fit into the same types of categories as before. 66, 88, JJ, QQ all play the flop and turn the same. AK/KQ/AA all bet either the flop OR the turn, because they just aren't strong enough to super-slowplay. AT, AJ, and AQ might bet the flop as a cbet, or might check it back for SDV. Same with the turn. I think again we can extremely heavily discount any mega-airballs on the river from this player. Any hands that would want to bomb this river as a bluff would likely have done so on an earlier street, or can easily make a bluff-catching call. Which means again, we really only need to consider flopped sets. Your main point was that villain might be able to have 99 in this spot. Certainly possible. If he has 77 (1 combo), 99 (3), and KK (3) in his check two streets/bomb river range, then that's 7 combos, but before we said he bets KK half the time on the flop and half the time on the turn if he checked the flop. I think there is an even stronger case for him betting 77 or 99 OTF, right? He's not blocking top pair any longer, so he's not as afraid of crushing the board. I think the same goes for 77, but let's just ignore that hand, since maybe he's a 12/8 and doesn't open it or something. So he bets KK half the time and I would argue 99 at least 75% of the time on the flop. KK half the time on the turn and at least 75% of the time on the turn. So after the river jam, villain has (3 combos)(.5)(.5) = .75 combos of KK, and (3 combos)(.25)(.25) = .1875 combos of 99. As Phil already calculated, we need about 1.5:1 card odds to call. But we're getting .1875:.75 = 1:4... Noooot ideal. And I actually think the numbers above are pretty conservative. I think villain likely slowplays KK [I]more[/I] frequently than what we've suggested, and slowplays 99 [I]less[/I]. So basically, unless villain is running 9/4 but is actually a spewtard in disguise over the last 70ish hands (< 1% chance imo), we can just fold and silently thank villain for playing his hand in a way that allows us to put him on approximately his exact two cards. [/QUOTE]

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