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[QUOTE="sedlacekj, post: 6332996, member: 385229"]
I think several top-notch players would try to bluff Foxen here.  It is not a "good" or standard play, but a bald bluff against a player who was occasionally playing weak hands.  Sometimes bluff-raising against a player like this will get you into trouble, and it got Helmuth into trouble.  Foxen had a pair this time.  To raise a bluff like this, it doesn't matter what two cards you have, you could have 82o and still play this way against a player who has been noticed raising junk.  The goal is to get him to fold his junk (i.e. Foxen).  The only problem is that he didn't have junk this time, so Helmuth is in trouble.  Helmuth's choices are to fold and continue with 9.2 BB and cash out later very low in the tourney or go all in and hope just so that he can cash out higher later.  Since his Q was higher than Foxen's 9, he does have a 28% chance here.  (of course Helmuth doesn't know this until the cards are face up).  The all-in has only one goal, to try to finish higher in the tourney with a lucky draw.  It worked this time, but would only work 28% of the time.  The odds that matter are how far up ITM you will move if you hit vs. where you would be if you fold.  If the hand would hit 28% of the time, then you need to have at least the difference in payout odds of 3.6:1 when it hits vs. if you fold.  I am not sure in that tourney where they were at in terms of payout, but that might be the difference between 2 or 3 payout slots.  In the right situation against the right player this has odds in your favor sometimes.  I think Helmuth had the odds for the payout increase in his favor.
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