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[QUOTE="Samango, post: 2127157, member: 47536"]
If you flipped a coin twice and it came down heads both times, you wouldn't think it that strange.
If you flipped a coin 10 times and it came down heads every time you would think that unusual but possible
If you flipped a coin 100 times and it came down heads 70 times, that is off from the probability of 50/50 but it's easy to see how that is still possible
but if you flip a coin 100,000 times it [B]will[/B] come down much closer to the expected 50/50, maybe 55/45 but it would be very unlikely to be 70/30 or higher.
The probability is just that, only [B]a probability[/B] not a certainty, and it is only when you have a large enough sample size that you will see the true effect.
As for what that sample size should be for your example of pairs making a set on the flop, I don't know the answer to that, — but you (along with me and every other poker player) can safely continue to use the probability of 11.76% as that is the best information that any of us have.
There are people and organisations who monitor the pokersites to ensure that these probabilities run true within a limit of deviation from the expected value over large samples. They will let us know if anything is genuinely wrong
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