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Message: [QUOTE="mrmonkey, post: 1952789, member: 72028"] Obviously the study part of the article is flawed, but I do agree with the main sentiment of the article in that *most* poker players do tend to overlook the role that luck plays in the game... particularly anyone who has not played more than 1,000,000 hands or so (which is probably a great majority of casual or semi-serious players). It can also become a bane to people who tie their ego in with their perceived skill or monetary results at the poker table. I think most people know that in any single session luck plays a very significant role in the outcome. However, I think many players underestimate how much luck can play a factor over the course of 50,000 hands... 100,000 hands... even all the way up to and beyond 1,000,000 hands. This variance simulator is a good eye opener for many players: [url]http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/[/url] Over 1,000,000 hands, the gap between the same exact player's best run vs. his worst run can be a difference of around 60,000bb. To put that in more relatable terms, a moderate winning player (4bb/100 expected winrate) grinding 25nl playing the exact same game against the exact same opponents over 1,000,000 hands could be up about $2,500 (0.5bb/100) or $15,000 (6.5bb/100)... all depending on variance. A breakeven player over that same million hand stretch could be either up $6250 (+2.5bb/100) or down $7500 (-3.0bb/100). Also, poker is a very difficult game to gauge just how skilled you are since the very thing that typically measures a players skill (winrate) is something that is heavily influenced by luck. This is why things such as detailed hand-by-hand session review are so very important, as it can give you a much better idea about how you are playing vs. just looking at your winrate or winnings. It also shows why it is so very important to find ways to offset or limit variance, by taking advantage of things such as rakeback and other offers/promotions whenever available. Also, the very best way to be a winning player is to be so good that even the worst luck still allows you to be a winning player... which means study, practice, discipline to continue getting more skilled in poker knowledge, self-control, and efficacy in use of bankroll and time. [/QUOTE]

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