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Poker Discussion
General Poker
Poker, Skill or Luck? what %
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[QUOTE="AlexeiVronsky, post: 779684, member: 31136"] Basically it boils down to the more hands you play the less luck there is. Tournaments are slightly different as it's basically a microcosm of your playing career. How lucky you are in a particular tournament makes a large difference, but over a lot of tournaments it's less influential. Even in a huge tournament like the WSOP ME where the winner and 2nd place finisher of the tournament would be playing say approximately 2400 (assuming about 30 hands per hour for 10 hours a day for 8 days) that's a huge luck factor, anyone who's played a lot of poker knows that over that few hands luck is a large factor. When you consider the escalating blinds there are going to be a lot of times where you're going to have to take big risks and end up as an underdog and get lucky to stay competitive with the rest of the field, there's no two ways about it. There's even a paper on arxiv.org that talks about the optimal frequency for being all in during a tournament. So there's even more luck involved in tournaments than in cash games. This is because luck is a decreasing factor the more hands are dealt assuming a skill differential between players. Speaking of which if you want proof of luck being involved, pit two identical bots playing the identical strategy against one another, it's very likely one of them will be ahead of the other over an arbitrary number of trials since it's basically a random walk problem. [/QUOTE]
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