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Message: [QUOTE="AlexeiVronsky, post: 796059, member: 31136"] Ok, I'm defining luck as a deviance from the expected. Lets say you're in a situation where you expect to win 36% of the time (ie. hitting your flush draw,) and you win, you got lucky. Lets say that you're in that situation a thousand times and you win 357 of them, that's slightly unlucky, but well within a standard deviation. Now if you were to win 450 of them on the other hand that would be phenomenally lucky, but considering the huge number of poker hands people play I have little doubt someone experienced this in their lifetime. If they were to have that situation 100,000 times and won 50,000 of them there'd almost certainly be cheating involved, just because the chance of that occurring is so incredibly small. So fewer hands means greater impact of luck, more hands is less luck, to say how much luck is a factor without defining over what period of time, and the skill differential, to say any particular value for luck or skill is meaningless. For those interested a bit more there was a good article on probability in Scientific American a few years ago, (not exactly about poker however) that's online now at [url=http://mysite.verizon.net/res0im1v/donettesteelepsychology/id11.html]Miracle on Probability Street by Michael Shermer[/url]. When you hear about people's successes or failures at poker, people are much more likely to talk about improbable events so it seems like they happen a lot more often so you get a magnifying effect in that way, not to mention poker players, *gasp*, lie, so I'm guessing luck seems like a much larger factor than it really is in poker especially over the long term. [/QUOTE]

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