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[QUOTE="zachvac, post: 796083, member: 26306"]
Actually, how about just a thousand, that means you'll have 700 hold up all but a significantly insignificant amount of the time (ie if 700 or more didn't you'd have proof it was rigged), and at least 725/1000 hold up 96.6% of the time. So that's a factor of a thousand, so instead of the 114 years, that's about 6 weeks. Much more realistic. So yes going all-in with cards to come is certainly going to suffer some short-term variance. But if you go all-in preflop with AA you are going to win more than you lose, and if you play a significant amount of time (I see AA an average of much more than 6 times a day, actually more than twice that on my average day of 3k hands). So if I play for about 3 weeks I'll have a 97% chance of winning at least 72.5% when the true average is 75%. That's not bad. Alternatively though, know that variance goes the other way. Some players will win with AA 85% in a week sometimes, but if you play long-term, you will win getting your money in good. And short term, you have a better chance of winning than losing if you get your money in good.

ALSO, realize that winning with AA is also variance, as the true mean is 75% and you won 100% of the money.
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