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Message: [QUOTE="odinscott, post: 797128, member: 37593"] I get what you are saying and I actually am winning, though not today... My post actually has alot more in common with your post. I think that there are two things in poker that make you lose. Bad playing (also counting making a mistake) and bad luck. You can correct the 1st one, but the second there is nothing that you can do. I do believe that overall the best players do the best in tourneys (where I think alot more luck is involved). Especially over the long term (how long is that though? lol). But my point with variance is that it is simply bad luck. If I am second chip leader on my table, late in a tourney - then get sucked out on two hands right in a row (happens to me all the time, when everyone starts shoving every hand), now I am crippled. I got my hand in with the best of it, but the lower percentage hand won. Eventually a few hands later I am out and they are in. That is why I think that luck plays a great deal in the immediate future, especially in MTT though in STT and ring games as well. I agree with this post. Tourney play is about gathering chips and holding onto them in order to survive. At least to the FT where you can usually get back to playing regular poker a bit (not shove shove fold fold). The short stack probably is always going to shove but you know what I mean. The only problem with that is, bad luck will still knock you out of alot of tourneys. Even if you wait for the best time to get your money in, if you do it over and over, you are eventually going to either get a giant stack (if you were lucky in this tourney) or get knocked out (if you werent lucky). The thing about MTT strategy is that it is designed to take luck account and give you better odds. That doesnt mean that alot of the times the best player wins the tourney. As a matter of fact on a case by case basis the best player probably doesnt win the tourney. They surely win more tourneys than the lesser player overall, but on a case by case basis the winner was the guy that was luckier that day. To me MTT poker is about as high as 40% luck, in the 2x turbos and such, where what cards you are dealt will quickly decided if you are going to make it or not. In deep stack 30 min blind type tourneys luck is cut back to probably like 20%. I prefer the latter, but sometimes playing for 9 hours straight doesnt fit in my schedule. :p Ring games are another story. I think that they are probably something like 25% luck in the very loose games and only like 10 or maybe 15% luck in the higher stakes/tighter games. The difference with the blind staying still and being able to come and go as you please makes alot of difference. Also lets say that you are buying in with 20 dollars. If it is a 20 dollar tourney, you only lose it once. If it is a ring game, you lose the 20 over and over which alot of the time makes the ring game player play alot tighter/smarter. I dont mind when I sit at the 10 cent 180 man turbo and someone is playing around and they shove hand after hand. Or like a table I was at the other day, 6 of the players shoved first hand. It kept going like that for like the first 10 hands. lol I watched players sit shove get knocked out, lol. That is fine with me. But when I was trying to get into the turbo takedown today (playing with my precious FPPs that I like more than money) and the table turned into a game like that, well that just sucks. I usually wait until I have a monster, but AK usually doesnt hold up when there are 5 people allin already. If I get lucky and it does (and yes I mean get lucky, better starting hand or not if it wins I got lucky if there were already 5 guys allin lol), but if it does hold up, usually in the next 10 hands that I play I will lose a few big ones and get knocked out. TBH in the takedown sat today I made it to 3rd before villian got runner runner which friggin pissed me off even more, but you get my point. [/QUOTE]

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