Probability of Winning at Poker?

jfofla · Jan 17, 2019

is there any book that talks about the probability of winning in poker ?, if anyone knows, give me the name because I would very much like to read about it.

rocketbox · Jan 17, 2019

jfofla said:
is there any book that talks about the probability of winning in poker ?, if anyone knows, give me the name because I would very much like to read about it.

FIRST!

Good question - try Super System to start, then read Jared Tendler's Mental Game of Poker. Harrington on Hold 'em, also

Ranish625 · Jan 17, 2019

Thank you! Also looking for something to read about poker to gain a little crazy, and the fact that it's not going well in my game.

freddydr87 · Jan 17, 2019

Get any books off odds and statistics and apply it to poker, the math are the same for all odds games.

naydanazar · Jan 17, 2019

I would have advised you to watch poker analysis on youtube, many successful poker players are taught to parse their games

Dark Army · Jan 17, 2019

jfofla said:
is there any book that talks about the probability of winning in poker ?, if anyone knows, give me the name because I would very much like to read about it.

This is an incredibly vague question. That's like asking what's the probability of being successful in anything I do.

Are you asking about the odds of a particular hand winning? That's probably what you're looking for.

Cardschat has answers to a lot of this stuff in their "poker strategy" menu.

Start here: https://www.cardschat.com/poker-starting-hands.php

jaymfc · Jan 17, 2019

jfofla said:
is there any book that talks about the probability of winning in poker ?, if anyone knows, give me the name because I would very much like to read about it.

Dark Army said:
This is an incredibly vague question. That's like asking what's the probability of being successful in anything I do.

Are you asking about the odds of a particular hand winning? That's probably what you're looking for.

Cardschat has answers to a lot of this stuff in their "Poker Strategy" menu.

Start here: https://www.cardschat.com/poker-starting-hands.php

they all have your question answered well

my thoughts are you have a 1 in 5 chance of becoming a profitable player.
but learning here and in books gives you a great chance of being a good player.

takinitSLEAZEE · Jan 17, 2019

The probability of winning at poker is, imo, based on a players' knowledge of the game, an understanding of mathematical odds therein, and the stakes at which one plays. I also refer to a movie quote by the character 'Mike McD.' in the movie Rounders in which he said in the movies opening narratives, "No limit Texas hold'em is the Cadillac of poker. There's no other game in which fortunes can change so much from hand to hand. This why the wsop is decided over a NLTH table. Some people, pros, even won't play no-limit; they can't handle the swings."
Of course the movie came out over 20 years ago and pros do play NLTH. The part about fortunes changing from hand to hand is still very relevant. I often notice players posting threads wanting to know if 'online poker is rigged' or 'my AA got cracked by some donk playing a 10-J ' and complaints like that. Well, in a nutshell, that's poker. No guarantees. A skilled player realizes this and win or lose keeps grinding away because there is no substitute for experience.
So add all of that up and you just might win some $, probably...? Good luck, man.

vov4ik · Jan 18, 2019

poker game is unpredictable, today you can win and tomorrow you can lose, in poker you need to have good playing skills and have patience in tournaments and will slowly get to win and raise a bankroll!

ghOst · Jan 18, 2019

in a lifespan of a poker player, a good player would be ITM in about 40%

Rui Ferreira · Jan 18, 2019

I particularly watch a lot of videos on youtube, there are a lot of good channels around, and it has helped me a lot

NWPatriot · Jan 18, 2019

jaymfc said:
....my thoughts are you have a 1 in 5 chance of becoming a profitable player...

I think 1 in 5 is awfully optimistic.

Considering 1 in 10 actually cash in a tournament (sometimes 1 in 15). you would have to win 10X your buyin and cash one out of ten tournaments to just breakeven. I have estimated before that i think only 2-4% of poker players make a profit.

KristaK · Jan 18, 2019

jfofla said:
is there any book that talks about the probability of winning in poker ?, if anyone knows, give me the name because I would very much like to read about it.

hi hi
that seems a weird question... what you specifically mean by "winning"
we can easily give the probability that AA wins against 2 random cards, how often you should be dealt AA etc etc
lots of software, books, articles will give you all the various odds of poker events

Probability is mathematical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. To ask "probability of winning in poker" is far too vague - to provide any meaningful answer

jaymfc · Jan 19, 2019

NWPatriot said:
I think 1 in 5 is awfully optimistic.

Considering 1 in 10 actually cash in a tournament (sometimes 1 in 15). you would have to win 10X your buyin and cash one out of ten tournaments to just breakeven. I have estimated before that i think only 2-4% of poker players make a profit.

you may be right. I was just going by the fact they say 80% of poker players are losing players, so 20% would be winners ( 1 in 5 )

it's really not a question you can give a definitive answer to because of so many variables

JMO

skaniol · Jan 19, 2019

According to David Stam:

I have the software Poker Tracker. It keeps records on my play and all of my
opponents play when I load the hand histories you can get from most poker
websites. The reason I mention this is that three out of every five players are
long-term money losers. So 20% of the players are long-term winners, 20%
are marginal winners, 40% are marginal losers and 20% are major money
losers.

I suggest you read his book Advanced Texas Hold'em (A Detailed Guide For No Limit and Limit Hold'em Poker Strategies). There is a lot about the various poker probabilities.

manyrivers2cross · Jan 19, 2019

your question as other folks have noted is vague. what exactly do you mean by winning? win the hand, win more than lose, etc? There are so many factors involved, your ability to calculate pot odds, number of outs you need, the level of skill you are playing against, etc. Best advice I try to tell myself is to be patient and try to assess probability of each and every hand based on 1) position, 2) starting hand, 3) number of others in game, 4) number of outs, 5) pot odds...

monstr999999 · Jan 19, 2019

it is necessary to count each hand...
There are many more factors to do the mathematical calculation of the hand at the table...
it's very hard to do mathematically and apply...
There are programs for counting... download and play..
I do not use, but people say it helps..
:eating:

NWPatriot · Jan 19, 2019

jaymfc said:
you may be right. I was just going by the fact they say 80% of poker players are losing players, so 20% would be winners ( 1 in 5 )

it's really not a question you can give a definitive answer to because of so many variables
JMO

Yup, pretty tough to nail this one down. From my personal experience, I cash in 19% of the live tournaments i play, which i feel is pretty good, but I am not a winning player - i win plenty, but don't seem to finish high enough. The lesson is that small cashes do not get the job done.

mrverceddy · Feb 14, 2019

It depends on how good you are if you assume both players are exactyle the same skilled your odds are 100%-rake%

rfbh54 · Feb 15, 2019

The average winning percentage in poker is 20-30% of hands, that is, 1 is won from 4-5 hands.

Poker_Mike · Feb 16, 2019

jfofla said:
is there any book that talks about the probability of winning in poker ?, if anyone knows, give me the name because I would very much like to read about it.

The Odds Calculator may be more helpful than any book.

Good luck !

0546474 · Feb 16, 2019

This is the free version of the icmizer program !!! probably she will give you some answers to your questions !!!

https://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#default

Douglas Gonzaga · Feb 16, 2019

I try to watch videos on YouTube, and learn certain tricks, but I know that in poker the variance is great.

Dzob · Feb 18, 2019

The probability of winning a particular hand or generally? What did you mean?

If it is generally:
Probability of winning can be calculated in roulette or lotto games. In poker, the rules are simple - if you will be training a lot in the long run, you will be a plus.

If the probability of winning a particular hand:
I think that any article on the calculation of pot odds will be helpful.

FanatsLV · Feb 18, 2019

Every hand is a winner and every hand is a loser so there's no particular hand but with big hand you will win often than lower ones

Probability of Winning at Poker?

jfofla

Legend

rocketbox

Enthusiast

Ranish625

Visionary

freddydr87

League Champion

naydanazar

Rock Star

Dark Army

Enthusiast

jaymfc

R.I.P DJ & Buck

takinitSLEAZEE

Legend

vov4ik

Legend

ghOst

Rock Star

Rui Ferreira

Visionary

NWPatriot

Rock Star

KristaK

Visionary

jaymfc

R.I.P DJ & Buck

skaniol

Visionary

manyrivers2cross

Rising Star

monstr999999

Visionary

NWPatriot

Rock Star

mrverceddy

Enthusiast

rfbh54

Rock Star

Poker_Mike

Legend

0546474

Legend

Douglas Gonzaga

Rock Star

Dzob

Visionary

FanatsLV

Visionary

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site