Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="vinnie, post: 3812081, member: 95995"] I just remembered that I had a bunch of hold'em hands on Carbon in this database. I never play there anymore. They gave me a bunch of free money, and I would run it up on the Hold'em tables and then lose it on the PLO tables without any regard to bankroll management (I had like $50 on there and was playing $10 PLO) because it was free. I eventually busted that roll, but went to ACR, where I had more money and enough PLO action that I didn't have to play hold'em. Total hold'em hands: 20,152 Expected pairs: 1,185.4 (+/- 33.4 per stdev) Actual pairs: 1,223 Expected of each pair: 91.2 (+/- 9.53 per stdev) Actual of each pair: range from 78-104 The difference in total pairs is 1.13 standard deviations from the mean. The largest standard deviation from the mean for any individual pair is 1.39. In short, this data is pretty darn normal. How about, do I flop sets (or better) enough? If I see a flop while holding a pair, I should have a set or better (hit my hole cards) on the flop 11.7551% of the time. I saw 872 flops while holding a pair. I should have had a set or better 102.5 times (+/- 9.51 per stdev). I actually had 110 sets, quads, or full houses (excluding boards like 2-2-2 from full houses). That's 7.5 away from expected and less than one standard deviation from what I expect. In other words, it was perfectly normal. If I had flopped like 200 sets or better, we would have some serious investigation to do. That's way outside the expected. In that case, we would have a datapoint that suggested something might be up. We would then investigate how often someone would have a 20k sample of hands 10 standard deviations from the mean. How many 20k samples would we need before we expect one of them to be that far away? And, other people would start looking for this exact same issue in their database. If I am flopping way more sets than I should, are other people? If they are, then the site is probably rigged. If they're flopping way less, that is also a good clue that someone is wrong. If this is the only sample where we find this happening, we still have questions and reason to investigate, but it is not definitive. It's a strong datapoint though. The simple fact is, we don't have people coming out with datasets that are far away from the mean. And, when people test their own data, it tends to be normal and no one is finding anything consistently out of line with expectation. If they did, others could easily check to see if their samples were out of line with that expectation. In this way, many small samples do work as well as a single large sample. [/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us