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Message: [QUOTE="vinnie, post: 3812221, member: 95995"] Other fun facts from my hold'em sample. This time looking at suited cards dealt and flops, turns, and rivers. Dealt suited cards (20,152 hand sample) Expected: 4,741.6 Actual: 4,724 (0.29 stdev from expected) Flops seen with suited cards: 1,386 Flopping a flush expected: 11.7 Flopping a flush actual: 10 (0.49 stdev from expected) Flopping a flush draw expected: 151.7 Flopping a flush draw actual: 174 (1.92 stdev from expected) The only one that is even curious is the flush draw. Over that sample size, the standard deviation is 11.6. So, we are 1.92 standard deviations from the expected value. It isn't even that far from expectation, especially with a 1.4k sample size. Obviously, there's nothing here that makes me think rigged. I could go further, and see how many turns (137) I saw. And, how often I hit my flush on the turn (21). That's a tad low. I expect to make it 26.2 times. It still isn't horrible at 1.13 stdev away from the expected value. 14 of those flushes saw the river and I saw 107 rivers. I already had a flush on 14. So, 93 rivers drawing to a flush. I should hit my flush on the river 18.2 times. I hit my flush on 18 of them. That is pretty spot on (0.05 stdev from expected). Nothing with flush draws makes me think there's weirdness going on. And, we could do this for any class of hands and draws. The fact that the sample size is small is an issue when we discuss rare events, but we can see if things are happening roughly as often as expected. Edit: my point of posting these hand reviews from a 20k sample is that you could be doing the same thing with your own sample. The fact that it is small is a limitation when it comes to "proof" but not one when it comes to looking for something out of place. If you review it and find data that shouldn't be there, it provides a place to start looking for other people. Although, I suspect that when you look, you will end up finding similar data to what I found. Like I said, those with databases who go and review them inevitably come back with results that suggest things are normal. [/QUOTE]

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