Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="vinnie, post: 3814529, member: 95995"]
Your numbers weren't far off.  I assume you used percentages found online.  I was using the exact odds.  For example, odds of holding suited cards are 4/17.  Looks like you used 23.25% which is pretty close.  The 174 instead of the 173 was just rounding.  When I went and got the z-scores, I avoided all rounding until the very end.  So, I didn't used 91 for expected number of hands, I used the 90.8914... number until the very end.

The odds of hitting your card, when you hold a pair, is easily calculated by [1-(48*47*46)/(50*49*48)] or basically, find the odds of "NOT" hitting your set and subtract from 1.  This is where we get the 7.5-1 number.  That's the number almost every single website uses, because most people just want to know the odds of improving.  It isn't like you want to hit a set, but not hit quads or a full house.

For hitting exactly your set.  You need to find the combos.  First, there are 19,600 different 3 card flops from a 50 card deck.  There are 2 ways to hit your card and (48*44)/2 or 1,056 ways to make a non-paired combination without your card.  That's 2,112 flop combinations that give you a set, but not better.  2112/19600 is the odds of hitting exactly a set.  That is 8.28-1.  It's a number that is useless to know, because it doesn't have any practical application during play.

Some Examples of Exact Odds:
* Odds of set or better [U]using your pair[/U]? 2304/19600
* Odds of flopping exactly a set? 2112/19600
* Odds of flopping quads?  48/19600
* Odds of flopping a full house [U]hitting your card[/U]? 144/19600

* Odds of flopping a flush? 165/19600
* Odds of flopping a flush draw? 2145/19600
[/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us